Preakness future wager strategy: Favor the fresh faces

A horse who did not race in the Kentucky Derby has won the Preakness Stakes the last five years, a trend I do not see letting up this year.

In fact, other than the Kentucky Derby winner himself, there is not much confidence to be had that a Derby starter will compete in the Preakness on May 17 at Pimlico.

With that in mind, I am exclusively looking at those horses in the Preakness Future Wager who are not expected to race in the Kentucky Derby. I word it that way because as of this writing, that includes no. 4 Baeza. We will know by 9 a.m. EDT Friday if he is running in the Derby.

As for the others, I am surprised that horses pointing for the Preakness such as no. 19 Gosger, no. 21 Heart of Honor, no. 23 Hill Road, no. 29, Pay Billy, and no. 33 River Thames, all are more than 30-1. No matter what happens between now and Preakness, if they are in the gate they will be much shorter prices than they are now.

That is not to suggest playing them all, but staking your claim on the one you like best should put you in an overlay situation. For me, that is Hill Road, who was a fine third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial and likely still needed some seasoning in his second start as a 3-year-old after being rushed to his seasonal debut. The Preakness Future Wager closes before the Kentucky Derby, so it'd be nice to see Rodriguez and Grande run well to boost Hill Road's form.

The Preakness future wager closes at 6 p.m. EDT on Saturday. Wager it via Preakness Future Wager track code on your account wagering outlet of choice.

Coverage of the Preakness Future Wager is provided in partnership with 1/ST Racing.