Preakness futures fair odds: New shooters offer value
The first-ever Preakness Stakes Future Wager began Friday at noon EDT, and will not conclude until next Saturday at 6 p.m. What happens about an hour later in Kentucky Derby 2023 will have big influence on how the Preakness is bet.
Todd Pletcher trains both Forte and Tapit Trice, the two most likely winners of the Kentucky Derby, but Pletcher is not known for darkening the stakes-barn doors at Pimlico with Derby starters unless they also are Derby winners, like Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.
I'm using this trainer's PPs to determine that the only way we see Forte or Tapit Trice in the Preakness is via a win at Churchill Downs. So while either would be a likely winner of the Preakness if the Future Wager pool were the actual field, with that not being the case, it is essentially a two-race parlay on these two and Kingsbarns, which means I would not want to bet them unless they are at least 10-1.
What that means is there is tremendous opportunity here, because, based on the morning line, Forte is 4-1 and Tapit Trice is 6-1, and neither is playable at those prices.
I doubt First Mission actually will be 15-1, but assuming Forte and Tapit Trice are both less than 10-1, then First Mission has to be at least 5-1, and that's good enough for me. Of these three, he is the most likely starter and will not be any worse than third choice and only that low if Pletcher wins the Preakness, and if another logical Derby contender runs well and runs back on two weeks' rest.
Again, this pool is open now, but it does not close for eight days. Kentucky Derby day is busy, but I will be setting an alarm for the 5 o'clock hour to check the prices on First Mission and other new shooters. I could see Mandarin Hero and Cyclone Mischief both offering value. That assumes neither gets in the Derby. That would bump their odds up.
The field with the morning line is in the image above. My fair odds are below:
| No. | Horse | Ed's odds |
| 1 | Angel of Empire | 50-1 |
| 2 | Blazing Sevens | 30-1 |
| 3 | Chase the Chaos | 100-1 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | 200-1 |
| 5 | Continuar | 1,000-1 |
| 6 | Cyclone Mischief | 8-1 |
| 7 | Derma Sotogake | 40-1 |
| 8 | Disarm | 80-1 |
| 9 | First Mission | 5-1 |
| 10 | Forte | 10-1 |
| 11 | Hit Show | 60-1 |
| 12 | Instant Coffee | 10-1 |
| 13 | Jace's Road | 200-1 |
| 14 | Kingsbarns | 100-1 |
| 15 | Lord Miles | 100-1 |
| 16 | Mage | 50-1 |
| 17 | Mandarin Hero | 8-1 |
| 18 | Practical Move | 20-1 |
| 19 | Raise Cain | 500-1 |
| 20 | Red Route One | 16-1 |
| 21 | Reincarnate | 100-1 |
| 22 | Rocket Can | 100-1 |
| 23 | Skinner | 50-1 |
| 24 | Sun Thunder | 200-1 |
| 25 | Tapit Trice | 20-1 |
| 26 | Two Phil's | 50-1 |
| 27 | Verifying | 50-1 |
| 28 | Wild On Ice | withdrawn |
| 29 | All others | 40-1 |