Preakness fair odds: Rodriguez has value against Journalism

In next Saturday's Preakness, fair odds on a coupled entry of Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism and Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez would be 3-5. 

That is not to say you will find that bet, but more to illustrate how good these two horses are relative to the rest of the field for the Preakness Stakes. Of course, if they both contest the middle jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown on May 17 at Pimlico, then Journalism almost certainly will be favored.

And why not? The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner was the 3-1 public choice in the Kentucky Derby, making the lead in early stretch before being run down by Sovereignty, who  was best that day. Sovereignty is skipping this race, likely for the Belmont Stakes on June 7 at Saratoga, leaving Journalism as the favorite again if trainer Michael McCarthy decides to run.

And although I do recognize Journalism as the most likely winner if he runs, it is hard to imagine the value will be there. I see him as only 16% more likely a winner than Rodriguez despite being only half the price in the win pool if both run.

Rodriguez won the Wood (G3) gate to wire from the rail, and one would think similar tactics are likely in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness. There is the potential for other speed in here, but none that I think could win if Rodriguez also fires. If Journalism runs, he is an obvious choice to pick up pieces given the absence of Sovereignty. In other words, Journalism's Derby trip wins this if Rodriguez does not see out the 9 1/2 furlongs.