Preakness fair odds: Muth unquestionably is horse to beat

Muth is not only the fastest horse among the Preakness Stakes probables but also the freshest. It's a potent combination that makes him by far the most likely winner of the second jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown.

Muth checks all the boxes except maybe value. I have his fair value at 6-5, and it's possible he ends up odds-on in this spot. That likely hinges on the participation of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, as he is sure to take money if in. But the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby no doubt would be a big talking point.

As you can see, Muth beat Mystik Dan that day, and it was not particularly close. The celebrity of a Derby win will attract money for sure, but there is no doubt in my mind that Muth will be the favorite.

If he is odds-on, then who are the alternatives? Well, Mystik Dan won't be a value alternative off a Derby win.

Trainer Bob Baffert's other horse, Imagination, ran OK in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but the performances of Stronghold and Mystik Dan in the Derby illustrate to me the strength of Muth's talent over his stablemate's. Plus Frankie Dettori on Imagination is sure to attract money.

Tuscan Gold was a decent third in the Louisiana Derby (G2), whose winner was eventual Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom. Trainer Chad Brown has won the Preakness twice, and neither occasion was with a Derby starter. He had Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022.

Copper Tax could be an overlay as well as the overlooked local horse. He was noncompetitive in a pair of 10-points-to-the-winner races, the Remsen (G2) and Sam F. Davis (G3). But he has since turned things around with wins in the Private Terms and Tesio Stakes this spring at Laurel Park. He is absolutely an underneath key for me in this spot.