Preakness fair odds: Derby winner Mage faces fresh face

Mage has gone from the hunter to the hunted, as the 15-1 winner of the Kentucky Derby is the likely favorite for the Preakness Stakes on May 20 at Pimlico.

Before achieving Kentucky Derby glory under Javier Castellano, Mage chased champion Forte in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). With that foe sidelined, Mage asserted the authority of the South Florida form with an emphatic victory over Two Phil's and 16 others Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Mage gallops as Pletcher seeks clarity on his status.

The presence of the Derby winner should provide value on the most well-regarded fresh face: Lexington Stakes (G3) winner First Mission.

Of the horses remaining in contention for the Preakness from the inaugural future wager, First Mission was the shortest price in the at 6-1, but he is unlikely to be the shortest price on race day because of Mage (and possibly others).

Another intriguing new shooter from a future-wager perspective is National Treasure, who closed at 13-1 as part of the field of all other 3-year-olds because he was not individually listed. Likely supplemental entry Perform is also part of the field.

I expect Mage to be favored and First Mission to be the second choice. Depending on how much money Mage takes off that impressive Derby, it could be good enough to nudge First Mission into overlay territory. If both are underlays, then the value is likely to be in the second tier of contenders such as Derby alums Confidence Game and Disarm as well as the aforementioned National Treasure. 

Any other current contender beyond that half-dozen is an outsider.

The love for First Mission definitely speaks to a reversal of the long-held trend that Derby runners make the best Preakness bets. But wins by non-Derby starters Cloud Computing (2017), Swiss Skydiver (2020), Rombauer (2021) and Early Voting (2022) have flipped the script.

In fact, one of the two Derby starters to win the Preakness in the last six years was Justify, who, like Mage, did not race as a 2-year-old. Justify went on to win the Belmont Stakes and thus the Triple Crown.