Preakness fair odds: Kentucky Derby horse or new shooter?

With $61,772 in the Preakness Stakes future wager win pool, the Kentucky Derby horses are taking most of the action with favorites Renegade, Further Ado and Commandment having 23% of the pool, and Chief Wallabee, So Happy and Emerging Market with another 16%.

That makes the top six choices from the Kentucky Derby with 39% of the pool. The only non-Derby runner taking similar money is Pat Day Mile Stakes entrant Crude Velocity as the fourth choice.

The Preakness future wager closes Saturday at 6 p.m. EDT, about an hour before the Kentucky Derby. That means bettors will know how Crude Velocity performed in the Pat Day Mile and maybe some hint from trainer Bob Baffert whether the Preakness is in the cards.

Of the horses not running on Derby day, Gotham Stakes winner Iron Honor, Tesio Stakes winner Taj Mahal, Gun Runner winner Chip Honcho and maiden winner Cherokee Nation are among the top choices in that category. Taj Mahal is unquestionably my preferred choice not only from that category but also in the race. He is 25-1 now and while I expect that to go down, I think the value will be there as bettors are clearly showing an affinity for Derby horses.

A few years ago, the plan of thinking of this as a Derby-Preakness win parlay of sorts would have been money in the bank, but with recent Derby winners Rich Strike and Sovereignty skipping the Preakness and the lack of Derby starters in the race in general, that is a tougher plan.

That said, I'd look at Further Ado from that standpoint if the price drifts up high enough. He would be even money in the Preakness off a Derby win, so anything above 12-1 is OK from that standpoint but then he still needs to target the race. All things considered, give me Taj Mahal.