Improbable 'hitting on all cylinders' for Preakness Stakes

While saying Improbable “inherited” Preakness Stakes favoritism, Bob Baffert believes he has a horse to beat in Saturday’s race at Pimlico. But the Hall of Fame trainer doesn’t believe he has the horse to beat.

That’s even though, as Baffert quipped, “We won’t have any of the Derby winners in there.”

Improbable, fifth across the wire and promoted to fourth at Churchill Downs, is the highest finisher running back in the second leg of the Triple Crown series following a controversial Derby that saw Maximum Security disqualified and Country House bumped into the top spot.

Baffert was on hand Monday as Improbable, a son of City Zip, breezed through an “easy half” mile in 51.80 seconds under the Twin Spires.

“He looks like he’s enjoying himself out there,” the trainer said. “…We want to go up there and make sure he’s really hitting on all cylinders. We don’t want to go up there and embarrass ourselves, so we’re looking good today.”

“He’s held his weight pretty well, especially for a horse that shipped twice to Arkansas and came back here and ran in the Derby,” Baffert said. “He still looks really healthy, and that’s what you want to see this time of year.”

Jockey Mike Smith, who has a penchant for letting speedy horses roll, will assume the mount for the first time on Improbable, a Grade 1 winner at age 2 who’s campaigned by the familiar connections of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and Starlight Racing.

Baffert added blinkers for the Arkansas Derby in a failed experiment as Improbable acted up in the gate. Perhaps Smith will click in an effort to sit closer to the pace.

“He still needs to get away,” Baffert said. “For some reason he still has trouble that first hundred yards. He scrambles a little bit. For a horse that has as much natural speed as he has, it takes him a while to get going.”

Baffert also sees a slight cutback in distance, from 10 furlongs to 1 3/16 miles, as a benefit, as 1 1/4 “might be stretching him.” Improbable is the only of three Derby runners for Baffert coming back on two weeks’ rest.

“But for a horse that has run so many times, man, he doesn’t look like he’s run,” the trainer said. “I’m really happy with the way he’s moving. The thing about his mechanics, he’s really light on his feet. He doesn’t really struggle.

“We’ll see how he handles Pimlico. He looked great today.”

With seven Preakness victories — five of them by horses exiting Derby wins — Baffert is tied for the race’s all-time record following Justify’s score last year in the Pimlico fog. His non-Derby winners to take the Preakness were Point Given (fifth at Churchill in 2001) and Lookin At Lucky (sixth in 2010).