Preakness Stakes a $150,000 gamble for Warrior's Charge

As the early, $600 nomination deadline for the 2019 Triple Crown series passed, Marshall Gramm, founding partner of Ten Strike Racing, viewed Warrior’s Charge as “a sprinter who hadn’t broken his maiden.”

At the $6,000 late nomination cutoff, the son of Munnings had visited the winner’s circle, but only after four starts. His connections were content to proceed with patience.

Since then, a number of factors convinced Gramm, a Rhodes College economics professor, to calculate whether a $150,000 supplemental fee is worth the risk to try the Preakness Stakes.

“He proved to us that he was actually better going long and ran really competitive numbers,” said Gramm, whose colt, owned in partnership with Sol Kumin’s Madaket Stables, breezed five furlongs Saturday in 1:00.80 at Churchill Downs.

Now, next stop for the Brad Cox trainee is the May 18 Triple Crown race at Pimlico.

“We did the numbers on it,” Gramm said, “and it just made sense from a standpoint of how much it would increase the value of the horse and what kind of probability we thought we have in winning the race.”

After breaking his maiden, Warrior’s Charge continued progressing with a wire to wire allowance win on April 12 at Oaklawn Park. He finished 6 1/2 lengths clear of second place in a flight containing some well-regarded 3-year-olds, registering a 97 Beyer Speed Figure.

Then a controversial Kentucky Derby ran, with none of the Top 4 across the wire proceeding to Pimlico. Warrior’s Charge was already booked for a flight to run on Preakness weekend. Connections simply shifted his target race — but in a big way.

Horse Racing Nation’s early morning line installed Warrior’s Charge at 20-1 in a prospective field of 11.

“Maybe that’s right. Maybe he’ll go off that high,” Gramm said. “But I think in terms of his real prospects right now against this field, I think he’s a more fair value at 8, 10-1. His numbers fit, and I think he’s going to be very tactical in this spot, too.”

For $150,000, the colt is by no means a rabbit for Cox’s other Preakness contender, Owendale, who also submitted his final work Saturday at Churchill Downs, going 5/8 of a mile in a bullet 58.20 seconds. Last time, Owendale circled his rivals to win Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes (G3).

“I think they’re both ready to go,” Cox said after Saturday’s works. “They both had strong 5/8ths in the first set.

“Owendale has been doing phenomenal following the Lexington. He has that built in foundation from that race. Warrior’s Charge should be able to handle the two turns and is showing he is on an upward trend. That’s why we decided to supplement him. He didn’t run in any of the Derby preps so he had some time to develop and grow into himself.”

Warrior’s Charge, a private purchase for his connections bred in Florida, is already worth six figures to them. “Potential upside,” as Gramm puts it, is both in purse money with the Preakness a $1.5 million race and stallion prospects.

“We just thought mathematically it made sense,” Gramm said. “We talked to Brad, and we wouldn’t do it if Brad didn’t think he was training really well. Brad warmed up to the idea, and we started making plans.”