Preakness Stakes 2025: Odds and analysis
The Grade 1, $2 million Preakness Stakes drew a field of nine 3-year-olds. There are three horses from the 2025 Kentucky Derby who return in two weeks for the Preakness. The past five winners of the second leg of the Triple Crown did not run in the Kentucky Derby, although in 2020 Swiss Skydiver won the Kentucky Oaks on two weeks rest as did last year’s winner Seize the Grey with the Pat Day Mile (G2).
The Preakness winner was close to the early pace 14 times over the past 15 years. There were five horses that won on the front-end including Seize the Grey and National Treasure the last two years and Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah along with Oxbow. Stalkers were the most common with nine winners staying close in the early going. Exaggerator came from more than 11-lengths behind in 2016 to find the winner’s circle as the only deep closer.
Here are the odds and analysis for the Preakness with the official Pimlico morning line. Post time for the Preakness, which will be run as race 13 out of 14, is 7:01 p.m. EDT.
1. Goal Oriented, 6-1. Not This Time – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 2: 2-0-0 - $111,960. Goal Oriented began his career with a victory at Santa Anita at the beginning of April in a field of seven when he closed from sixth to win by more than three lengths going six furlongs. A month later he won an allowance at Churchill Downs with a front-end effort running 1 1/6-miles against nine other 3-year-olds. Flavien Prat will stay on board. Bob Baffert won the Preakness eight times from 1997 with Silver Charm to National Treasure in 2003. Undefeated in two races.
2. Journalism, 8-5. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 6: 4-1-1 - $1,638,880. Journalism finished second in the Kentucky Derby as the 3-1 favorite after he rallied from 11th to get the lead in the stretch but was run down by Sovereignty. On the way to the Derby Journalism won four races in a row in California, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). McCarthy won the Preakness in 2012 with Rombauer. The one to beat.
3. American Promise, 15-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez – 10: 2-1-1 - $444,874. American Promise finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby after pressing the early pace. Like many runners for D. Wayne Lukas he has plenty of experience heading to the Preakness with 10 starts, including a victory in the Virginia Derby that served as his prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Lukas has seven Preakness victories on his resume dating back to 1980 with Codex to 2024. Use underneath.
4. Heart of Honor, 12-1. Honor A. P. – Jamie Osborne/ Saffie Osborne – 6: 2-4-0 - $340,919. Heart of Honor was beaten by a nose in the UAE Derby (G2) in April by Admire Daytona, who went on the finish last in the Kentucky Derby. He won twice at Meydan in Dubai in a December maiden race and then a month later in an allowance. Heading to the UAE Derby he was second twice in stakes races. Toss.
5. Pay Billy, 20-1. Improbable – Michael Gorham / Raul Mena – 8: 4-1-1 - $234,475. Pay Billy earned a spot in the Preakness when he won the Frederico Tesio at Laurel Park a month ago after pressing the pace. Before that he won the Private Terms at the Maryland track. Since breaking his maiden in his fourth try in December, he has won four of his last 5 starts with one loss by a head in the Miracle Wood stakes. Serious local contender.
6. River Thames, 9-2. Maclean’s Music – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 2-1-1 - $261,900. River Thames won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park in January in maiden and allowance races. He moved onto the Derby trail with a narrow loss in the Fountain of Youth (G2) behind Sovereignty and then finished a close third in the Blue Grass (G1). Connections decided to skip the Derby and use the extra two weeks to target the second leg of the Triple Crown. Pletcher is seeking his first win in the Preakness. The only time any of his Kentucky Derby horses ran back in the second jewel of the Triple Crown is when they won that race. Win contender.
7. Sandman, 4-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / John Velazquez – 9: 3-1-2 - $1,254,595. Sandman finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby moving up from more than 15-lengths behind in 18th. Trainer Mark Casse runs his horses when they are in good form and Sandman will make his 10th start at Pimlico. Sandman made five starts on the Derby trail with a win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and hit the board three other times. He was over bet on the first Saturday in May as the 5-1 second choice and is likely to be an underlay again in Baltimore. Casse won the Preakness in 2019 with War of Will. Toss.
8. Clever Again, 5-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz – 3: 2-1-0 - $198,400. Clever Again began his career in April 2024 as a 2-year-old when he was second by a head. He did not run again until February at Oaklawn when he was a front-end winner by more than three lengths while going two-turns against a field of 10. The son of American Pharoah won again in March in the Hot Springs by four lengths. Although Steve Asmussen is without a Kentucky Derby victory, he won the Preakness twice with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.
9. Gosger, 20-1. Nyquist – Brendan Walsh / Luis Saez – 3: 2-1-0 - $292,200. Gosger made one start as a 2-year-old in December at Gulfstream when hewas second. He returned in February to beat a field of 10 going a one-turn mile. Going two turns he became a stakes winner in the Lexington (G3) by two lengths. Live longshot.
Summary: Since the year 2000 only eight Preakness winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby. As mentioned in the introduction to this race analysis the trend in the past five years was toward horses making their first start in the Triple Crown series in Baltimore.
A neutral pace is projected for the Preakness but the most likely horses to go the lead are Goal Oriented and Clever Again. Goal Oriented is trained by Bob Baffert and he did not win the Preakness eight times by letting the competition control the race early on. National Treasure, Justify and American Pharoah were all front-end winners for Baffert. Clever Again ran only three times and became a stakes winner at Oaklawn racing on the lead.
Favorites have not done well in the Preakness recently. The last two betting choices to win Pimlico’s signature race were the Triple Crown winners Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015.
Preakness trends say to play against the favorite and horses that prefer to rally from behind and that says to look beyond Journalism for the winner. Goal Oriented and Clever Again are the best alternatives to beat the favorite. Breaking from the outside gives the Steve Asmussen runner a slight advantage. Clever Again is the top pick.