Preakness 2018 on a sloppy track: Who does it favor?

One of the most frustrating things for horseplayers to handicap is for a sloppy track. While the first thought comes to which horses like and don't like the mud, often a more important factor is how the surface is playing. 

What type of horses and race styles are favored by the sloppy track?  Are you better off to be near the lead or come from behind? To race on the inside or the outside?

The reason for those questions: A sloppy track is very difficult for the track maintenance crew to maintain equally. Often biases exist. Take for example the 2017 Kentucky Derby, in which Always Dreaming (9-2) and Lookin at Lee (33-1) ran 1-2, but haven't won a stakes race since.

Regarding which horses handle the mud, we know horses running back in Saturday's 2018 Preakness Stakes from the Kentucky Derby will be just fine. They each dealt with similar conditions just two weeks ago.

Looking at the way the track played on Friday at Pimlico, we want to concentrate on the route races at 1 mile and longer. Race 9 and Race 11, the Pimlico Special and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, were won near the lead.

In the Pimlico Special, Irish War Cry (4-1, Post 1) jumped out to a 1 1/2-length lead along the inside and set a moderately quick pace of :47.25 for the half mile and 1:11.58 for six furlongs. Both of those times were the fastest splits of the day for routes. But he was never challenged -- no horse ever looked him in the eye -- and he drew off rather easily, winning by 4 1/2 lengths.

In the Black-Eyed Susan, Red Ruby (5-2, Post 3) went to the lead, then backed up to sit outside leader Coach Rocks. At first she sat two lengths behind the leader, then moved up to trail by a half length. But they didn't go very fast, with Coach Rocks setting a pace of :47.95 and 1:12.78.  Coach Rocks finished second while Red Ruby drew off by 4 3/4 lengths. 

Below is a chart of the route races on Friday and Saturday, and we will update this as the day goes on Saturday. 

What does this mean for the Preakness? 

The three stakes routes on Friday provide pretty good evidence as to how the Preakness track will play Saturday.

In two of three cases, the early leader wasn't under pressure, and the winner came from first or second. Only when the two leaders challenged each other did they fail to win. 

This sets up particularly well for Justify, as he is the fastest horse in the field of eight. What that means is that jockey Mike Smith can burst to the lead and then set the pace somewhat unchallenged. Even if the other horses go fast early, they may not be quick enough to keep up with Justify, who has a superior cruising speed.

That doesn't guarantee Justify will win, as there several other factors at play here, including how well he rebounds from a tough Kentucky Derby.  But it is nice for his backers to know the track is not going to hurt his chances, and will probably raise probability he remains undefeated. 

One thing to keep an eye on is the weather in Baltimore. If it continues to rain, the track shouldn't change much. However, some reports call for the rain to stop around 4 p.m. ET The track could dry out somewhat before the Preakness' 6:48 p.m. post time. On a drying track, the mud starts to condense and become slower and stickier. That can often hurt the chances of front runners and benefit come from behind closers. 

As for the sprint races and turf races at Pimlico, we are tracking those for you as well. The sprint races seemed to clearly favor frontrunners Friday. Only in one case, in Race 6, did the winner come from off the pace.

With two turf races on Friday, one was won by a deep closer and one was won wire-to-wire on the lead.  We will keep an eye on the rest of the turf races on Saturday.