Midland: How I use trends to play Preakness Future Wager

In only the second year of the Preakness Future Wager, we get a new pool to ponder and dive in on. From a betting perspective 40 options provides a lot of opportunity and directions to consider. 

After the first day, by Friday morning there was a little over $38,000 in the pool. That trend should take it to somewhere around $200,000 by the time it closes Saturday night at 8 p.m. EST. Regardless of the exact amount, that should give bettors a sizeable pool to make some bets. 

Betting Nysos or not 

As expected, Nysos, trained by Bob Baffert is taking heavy action and is currently a 2/1 favorite. The conventional thinking is that since Nysos cannot run in the Derby, he will go straight to the Preakness and be one of the favorites. However, it is important to remember that most years the Kentucky Derby winner looks pretty good in beating the Derby field and is the favorite in the Preakness. The most likely outcome here is that Nysos, if making it to the Preakness, would be a co-favorite with the Derby winner, which would put them both in the 2-1 range. If that's the case, there's no value in betting Nysos today and risking your money for 2 1/2 months in the hope he gets to the Preakness gate to get the same 2-1 or maybe 9-5. But the advantage to Nysos is that to win the Preakness, he only needs to win one race. He is not pointed to the Kentucky Derby first. 

One win or two? Derby and Preakness, or just Preakness?

The tough and fun part of this wager is not knowing which horses will go straight to the Preakness and which ones will go to the Derby first. For any horse going into the Derby, we know that in the last few years not that many have run back in the Preakness, only the Derby winner. So you almost have to look at this as a Daily Double, as the horse would have to win the Derby, enter the Preakness and the Preakness. Or run in the Derby and have a reason, such as a troubled trip, to merit running back in the Preakness. 

For that reason, any horse that has potential to go straight to the Preakness has much better odds to get to the Preakness, and thus better odds win the Preakness from where we are sitting now, in early March. 

We know that the Baffert horses won't run in the Derby, so they have much higher odds of even getting to the Preakness. Two other types of horses that might go straight to the Preakness are the second-tier horses and the local horses. In 2022, Chad Brown had Early Voting, who might have ranked in the top 20 in terms of Derby talent, but he opted to go straight to Baltimore and won. And obviously local horses that won't go in the Derby have a higher chance of running in the Preakness. One horse that falls in that camp is Inveigled, who is now trained by Maryland trainer Jane Cibelli and will be pointed to the Private Terms and Federico Tesio at Laurel. Another horse who isn't necessarily local, Endlessly, won the El Camino Real Derby and gets a free entry into the Preakness. Chase the Chaos used that ticket to the Preakness starting gate last year. 

Is there value in the field? 

My short answer is: almost always. The field is currently 9-1.  I think most years the field would get you a few horses in the Preakness gate and probably at least one in the 9-1 odds range. But let's look at last year's race as an example. 

Since there was no Preakness Future Wager pool 1 at this time last year, let's take a look at hypothetically whether the 2023 Preakness starters would have been in the list of 39 betting options or the field. 

Based on last year, it looks like the field would have definitely gotten you Perform at 8-1 and probably Mage at 7-5, because at this time last year he was only a maiden debut winner trained by Gustavo Delgado who at the time was not thought of as developing Derby prospects. In fact, HRN's Ron Flatter did a story updating Las Vegas Kentucky Derby odds after the 2023 Fountain of Youth and only then Mage was the 37th horse listed.

In addition, a 2023 Preakness Future Wager pool 1 field would have likely gotten you First Mission, who was listed at 5/2 morning line for the Preakness before scratching.

As we have seen with the Derby future pools, the field is a near certainty to give you horses in the starting gate and you can often end up with good horses popping out of the woodwork. I think worst-case scenario the field gets you a couple of 8-1, 10-1 types in the starting gate and probably a 25-1 type long shot or two. 

Also, bettors tend to think about what is in front of them, in this case the 39 horses listed. But another way to get a strong Preakness player is that that Bob Baffert could develop another Preakness contender that isn't even listed in this group. 

Putting it all together 

At a price of 7-1 or higher, I will bet $50 to win on the field and then make some $10 win bets on specific horses at high odds, especially if most of these stay above 60-1: Change of Command, Domestic Product, Hades, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Inveigled, Liberal Arts, Maymun, Resilience and possibly Snead. For most of these, I would be trying to catch a late developer that might skip the Derby. I would accept 30-1 on Maymun being a Baffert horse that would skip the Derby.

Preakness Future Wager odds - Friday morning, $38,000 in pool