Preakness fair odds: How to play it with Muth scratch

A handicapper friend of mine said it best after the scratch of morning-line favorite Muth from the Preakness Stakes, "At least I don't have to pick chalk to win a Triple Crown race now."

My fair odds on Muth were 8-5, which represents a 38.4 percent chance of winning. With him out of the race, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan becomes the betting favorite as well as the most likely winner. I think he wins this race 28.5 percent of the time, which makes fair odds 5-2. But I see no way he's that high, and he might be as low as odds-on, or less than even money, so this is a clear bet against.

The biggest beneficiary of the scratch of Muth is his uncoupled stablemate, Imagination, who went from likely pacesetter to gate-to-wire threat. There is chatter that Seize the Grey could run with him, but I do not think that is a threat to his chances to win the race.

Conversely, the scratch hurts Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner and Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom because there is definitely less opportunity for a pace collapse. That's not as much a problem for horses like Mystik Dan and Tuscan Gold, who can comfortably race mid-pack or even press a soft pace if necessary. But Catching Freedom will have too much to do late. And he'll potentially be second choice, so he's another to bet against on top.

The vision of Imagination winning this race gate to wire is so clear that it's impossible for me not to pick him on top, but it's not a stone-cold single as Muth would have been. Tuscan Gold at his expected, non-favored price is a must-use. I'll play the multi-race wagers to get live to both and look to use both heavily in the top spots of vertical exotics while trying to beat Mystik Dan out of the exacta completely.