Preakness fair odds: Derby winner creates opportunity

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby form held up well five weeks later in the Kentucky Derby, as the third-place finisher from Oaklawn's marquee race came back to win the run for the roses at Churchill Downs.

Now, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan gets his rematch in Saturday's Preakness against Arkansas Derby winner Muth, though the latter certainly appears a more likely winner given his seven weeks off versus Mystik Dan's two.

Not that this is a newsflash or anything, but this race has all the ingredients to make Muth an overlaid favorite.

For starters, he is the fastest horse. Muth ran back to his career-best performance when winning the Arkansas Derby, and with seven weeks between starts, there is every reason to think that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, an eight-time Preakness winner, will have Muth ready for another career-best performance.

Also, the presence of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will attract money. Mystik Dan absolutely can win this race, but he will need a career-best performance to do so. That's not impossible given his development to date, but it's not as likely as his win odds will indicate.

Both the Pimlico morning line and the Horse Racing Nation AI-powered projected odds line have Mugatu, Uncle Heavy and Seize the Grey under 50-1 (and likely much lower than that). These are all tremendous underlays that eliminate half the win takeout.