Preakness 2024: Ranking the field from 1st to last
After the thrilling photo finish in the Kentucky Derby and all the excitement surrounding Saratoga hosting the Belmont Stakes, it could be easy to overlook the 2024 Preakness Stakes. But this year's middle jewel of the Triple Crown is shaping up to be a competitive affair.
Mystik Dan pulled off the upset in the Kentucky Derby but will face almost an entirely new cast in the Preakness with six new faces entered. Below I rank the nine runners who will square off on Saturday from first to last.
1. Muth, 8-5. The $2 million dollar colt does not know how to run a bad race and enters this race fresh unlike Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan and Just Steel. He should be on or near the lead, and with his stablemate as his biggest pace competition, it is unlikely that he will get caught in a duel. He may have more ability than anyone in this field to begin with and when you factor in pace and conditioning, he will be tough to handle.
2. Catching Freedom, 6-1. He had every chance to win the Kentucky Derby, and though he could only manage fourth, it was still a solid effort that he can build on. His form has been consistently strong, and his Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win was one of the best of the Kentucky Derby preps. 6-1 odds is good value on a runner whose resume stacks up well with the rest of this field.
3. Imagination, 6-1. Bob Baffert's other runner has never been worse than second in six career starts and has proven to be tough as nails. He has tactical speed in a race lacking many confirmed front runners. Frankie Dettori should have him positioned beautifully from the outside draw while getting first run on Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold.
4. Tuscan Gold, 8-1. He is a bit of a grinder, but Chad Brown's colt has steadily improved in each start. He ran a strong third behind Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby when giving up experience with a less-than-ideal trip. He will have no problem with the distance and will be right in the mix with another step forward.
5. Seize the Grey, 15-1. The son of Arrogate was impressive in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and could hit the board in the Preakness if he continues his progression. He must answer distance questions after winning a one-turn mile, but he has the ability to compete with this crop.
6. Mystik Dan, 5-2. I am comfortable losing my wagers if the Kentucky Derby winner repeats in the Preakness Stakes. He simply has too much working against him in the Preakness as he comes back in just two weeks after a career best and grueling effort. Trainer Kenny McPeek stated he is concerned with the two-week turnaround as this colt ran poorly off a similar quick return as a 2-year-old. He also worked out a perfect trip over a surface he appears to relish when winning the Kentucky Derby. Even with a smaller field, he is likely to face less ideal circumstances on Saturday. His chances would increase, however, if it is a wet track.
7. Just Steel, 15-1. He was four lengths clear of Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby, but was no factor after pressing the pace in the Kentucky Derby and has proven to be wildly inconsistent. He could be a factor on his best day but is tough to trust.
8. Uncle Heavy, 20-1. This colt picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. and should have a better trip than he did when fifth in the Wood Memorial (G2) as he was hung wide from post 12. As usual, this year's Wood Memorial was very weak, and even a repeat of his Withers Stakes (G3) win would leave him with plenty of work to do.
9. Mugatu (20-1). He has yet to hit the board in three tries on dirt and was 181-1 when running fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in his last start. The deep closer would need a total pace collapse to make any noise.