Preakness morning line: Mage has early edge over First Mission

With the field in flux and nine days to go until Preakness 2023, it’s understandable that Pimlico’s morning-line maker doesn’t want to make firm predictions of opening odds for the race.

But Keith Feustle, who has written the morning line for the race since 2014, discussed his early thoughts Wednesday about how he sees the morning line taking shape.

With the preliminary information that he has at hand, Feustle said it’s “Mage over First Mission right now. And I would say like a 9-5 range for the favorite right now. Give or take a little bit one way or the other. Still, anybody can pop in there.”

One factor that had an impact is the defection of Two Phil’s, runner-up to Mage in the Derby, and Forte, the early Derby favorite who was ruled out with a hoof bruise.

“That certainly affects it, because I think I would have made Forte a slight favorite,” Feustle said. “Yeah, I do think he would have been my morning-line favorite. Would have been very close if Two Phil's stayed in and Forte was out, between Mage and Two Phil's. So looking at it right now. I would see Mage as your favorite with a slight little gap to First Mission.”

First Mission is a Brad Cox colt who is 2-for-3, including a win in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes.

With the stipulation that the field remains up in the air, Feustle said he thinks Disarm, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, might come to Pimlico. “Obviously, I think he'll draw a little consideration. Possibly National Treasure would kind of be in that mix.”

Feustle expects Blazing Sevens, third in the Blue Grass (G1) last out, “in that kind of 10-1 range, give or take just a little bit either way. He did take some play in the Preakness future wager, and Chad Brown obviously garners a lot of attention here.”

As for those with higher odds, Feustle said Chase The Chaos, who earned an automatic Preakness berth with his win in the El Camino Real Derby, would be “a long, long shot.” And Perform, winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, “I still think he's going to be quite a bit of a price.”