Preakness 2023: Cox is like everyone trying to map the pace

Baltimore

As much as they may say they do not bet on the races, trainers still have to be handicappers. Count Brad Cox among the many past-performance readers who wonder about the projected pace Saturday for Preakness 2023.

“I don’t know,” Cox said. “We won’t be the pace.”

With that he tossed aside any notion that jockey Luis Sáez and lightly raced Godolphin homebred First Mission might challenge for the early lead against the likes of National Treasure and Coffeewithchris.

“That’s ultimately up to Louie,” Cox said.

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But the two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer whose first Preakness win would give him a career Triple Crown was not blowing off the idea that he was ignoring the pace predictions. On the contrary.

“We can look at it as much as we may want on paper,” Cox said Wednesday morning outside the Pimlico stakes barn. “I like the layout of the race. Just standing out at the three-sixteenths pole watching my last set gallop and thought, ‘Man, that’s a long run to that first turn.’ ”

Even though he has had only three starts including last month’s Lexington Stakes (G3) victory, First Mission was made the 5-2 morning-line second choice behind Mage at 8-5.

Despite his lack of seasoning, First Mission has one small advantage when it comes to his wide draw. From the 8 hole, he will start from the same post position that he did March 18 when he broke his maiden in a 1 1/16-mile race at Fair Grounds.

With three 10-horse races on his past performances, First Mission will face the smallest field of his three-month career when he goes against seven rivals in the Preakness.

“I don’t know if post means a whole lot,” Cox said. “I’ve said it a million times. I’m not concerned about where they draw. I’m concerned with how they come out of the gate. It’s more important to me. But we’ll see.”

With no Kentucky Derby also-rans back to challenge May 6 winner Mage, this marks only the second time since the Preakness became the second race in the Triple Crown in 1932 that only one horse came out of the Churchill Downs classic. The first time was 1948, when Citation faced only three overmatched rivals on his way to the Triple Crown.

The last time the Preakness had as few as eight starters was only four years ago, when Justify was on his way to sweeping the classics. The time before that was 2015, when American Pharoah did it.

“I figured you would probably get 12 or 13,” Cox said. “But you know, listen, once again, you can just play the hand you’re dealt.”

Cox thought about that for a moment, knowing he could have brought back his own Derby horses, third-place Angel of Empire, sixth-place Hit Show, 16th-place Verifying and 17th-place Jace’s Road. Instead, he backed off without declaring a next race for any of them.

“We spoke with the ownership groups for each of the Derby horses,” Cox said. “It felt like none of them really made sense in regards to (the Preakness). Coming back in two weeks is a lot.”

That short gap was no big deal until about 50 years ago. Now in an era when horses race less so they may ultimately breed more, the spacing of Triple Crown races has stoked new debates. No wonder Cox declared what so many trainers had to be thinking before they rejected racing in both the Derby and Preakness.

“These horses can have careers beyond the Triple Crown,” he said. “We’re just trying to do what’s right for the horse. I felt like we did with all four that ran in the Kentucky Derby, and they needed time. First Mission is a good colt, and hopefully, he’s all we need Saturday to get to the winner’s circle.”

This was not just some late call to send the Street Sense colt to Pimlico. It was not even the Lexington performance in which First Mission powered through an impossibly small opening along the rail to win by a half-length over Arabian Lion.

“This was our plan after he broke his maiden,” Cox said. “It was to look at the Lexington. He came to Churchill after the win at Fair Grounds and trained really well leading up to the Lexington. We felt confident going into the Lexington. He’s had three works since leading up to the Preakness. He looks like he’s only gotten better based off his training. We’re in a great spot.”