Preakness 2018 predictions: Expert picks, longshots
Horse Racing Nation's experts assembled to make their Preakness Stakes picks, including longshots and in many cases recommended wagers.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #6 Tenfold
Analysis: Justify is just too good and will be ready to make a run at the Triple Crown after he scores the second jewel. The third leg will be a much harder test in the Belmont Stakes, but I see a Preakness walk in the park.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #5 Good Magic
On the board: #7 Justify, #6 Tenfold
Longshot I like: #8 Bravazo
Analysis: Since the Derby, Good Magic has come out looking just as strong. The cutback in distance will help him, and he has proven to handle the sloppy track. He will get pace with Quip, Bravazo and Diamond King all in this field and should sit a good trip. Justify hasn't come out 100 percent and now faces five races in three months, which could take a toll. Tenfold is an up-and-coming horse who may be a cut below the favorites, but he has a nice future ahead of him. I'll play a 5-7-6-8 Superfecta box. These top four can handle the slop, and Bravazo ran a nice race in the Derby.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #5 Good Magic
On the board: #7 Justify, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #8 Bravazo
Analysis: Yes, I do believe in Magic, so the scenario that has to happen is: If Good Magic can move forward a bit off his Derby and get a similar trip, maybe Justify comes back to him. Easier said than done. Justify has run four races in a short amount of time, so the possibility of a small regression looms. Quip bypassed the Derby and was pointed to this race. He has tactical speed that typically plays well at Pimlico. Bravazo was hung out five-wide for much of the Derby and still finished up pretty well. My $1 Superfecta key: 5,7/5,7/1,2,8/All ($30)
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #3 Sporting Chance
On the board: #7 Justify, #5 Good Magic
Longshot I like: #4 Diamond King
Analysis: Justify is a freak, but what if everything goes wacky in the Preakness? My "complete insanity" ticket is a 50-cent Trifecta that uses D. Wayne Lukas's pair on top with Justify, Good Magic and local entry Diamond King underneath. Why? Both Sporting Chance and Bravazo had wide trips on Derby day, and both were still gaining ground at the end of their respective races. Local runners as new shooters historically do well in the third and fourth spots of the Superfecta. If Justify succumbs to the hype, the hoof and the general Preakness peculiarity, this is my best guess at how to cash big.
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
Winner: #5 Good Magic
On the board: #2 Lone Sailor, #8 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #8 Bravazo
Analysis: Good Magic is primed to turn the tables on his rival, Justify, who may find the going a little more tough here. The 2-year-old foundation that Justify lacks, Good Magic has. If Justify doesn't win, I think he will be off the board like previous odds-on favorites Orb and Always Dreaming. For the underneath spots, I will go with the horses that ran in the Derby, Bravazo and Lone Sailor. Derby horses wheeling back to the Preakness have a great record.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #6 Tenfold
Analysis: I don't see anyone beating Justify, so I am going to keep him on top. I am happy there is not as much speed in here, as Good Magic won't have to be so close to such a hot pace like two weeks ago. He sits right up behind leaders Justify, Diamond King and possibly of a few other horses who may revert back to front-running style (Tenfold, Sporting Chance, Quip). I am playing the same Exacta as in the Derby.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Cappercorner)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #6 Tenfold
Analysis: The top two from the Derby look like they will complete the exacta again in Baltimore. I will play multiple Trifectas: 5,7/5,7/1,2,6,8 -- 5,7/1,2,6,8/5,7 -- 7/5/1,2,6,8. My main trifecta ticket will be 7/5/1,2,6.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #8 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #3 Sporting Chance
Analysis: Unless Justify has an off day, I do not see him losing. The WinStar horses should set an honest pace, allowing Bravazo and Sporting Chance to follow them. Lukas’ contender already showed they can handle a sloppy track which will be beneficial Saturday. If Sporting Chance can put it all together, he’s definitely a horse on which you can make some money. I think the distance will suit him well.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #2 Lone Sailor
Analysis: After the show Justify and Good Magic gave in the Kentucky Derby, it's hard to look elsewhere for the top finishers, and Quip comes into the Preakness with the experience to round out the top three. All three have shown consistently good performances this year. With low odds on Justify and Good Magic, and Quip the third morning line choice, I'd throw late-running Lone Sailor into a Superfecta in hopes of making some money back.
Kate Richards Wilt, Racing Hearts
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #3 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #4 Diamond King
Analysis: The value is in the 30-1 longshots that possess pedigree and /or home track advantages. Still, Justify is a king amongst princelings.
Jason Wood, The Paddock View, @JasonWWood
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #5 Good Magic, #1 Quip
Longshot I like: #4 Diamond King
Analysis: I plan to enjoy this race simply as a fan of the sport and not as a bettor. I look forward to another opportunity to witness and enjoy the talent that is Justify.