Preakness 2018 odds: Expert sets projected morning line

The 2018 Preakness Stakes field remains in flux, but what we do have is a defined favorite in Kentucky Derby winner Justify, and a decent supporting cast of horses expected to challenge him May 19 at Pimlico.

Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland — who in 1999 created Churchill Downs’ Derby Future Wager — projected morning line odds for the Triple Crown’s middle jewel, making Justify the 3-5 top choice.

"Looking at the last five Preakness Stakes,” Midland noted, “four of the last five Kentucky Derby winners went off at less than even money.”

The exception, Always Dreaming, faced, among others, Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee and the champion 2-year-old Classic Empire. Good Magic checks both of those boxes this year coming out of Churchill Downs. He's only possible, not probable, for the Preakness, and his defection would establish Justify as an even bigger favorite.

Including those known to be under consideration, here are current Horse Racing Nation's projected morning line odds for the Preakness Stakes balancing to 121%:

Justify (3-5): Trainer Bob Baffert has never lost in the Preakness with his Kentucky Derby winners. Justify will look to make it a perfect 5-for-5 but is one of only a few in this prospective field dealing with the quick two-week turnaround.

Good Magic (5-2): Should he go to the Preakness — trainer Chad Brown has essentially ruled out the Belmont as an option — the slight cutback in distance should help. He was one of few to run near the Derby’s fast pace and stick around late.

Quip (10-1): The partnership involving WinStar Farm has confirmed a second entry in addition to Justify, with this spot planned before the other colt won the Derby. Connections passed on the Kentucky Derby, but the Tampa Bay Derby winner will get his shot at a Triple Crown win nonetheless.

Bravazo (12-1): The first of two from the D. Wayne Lukas barn will garner more respect than in the Derby, as he managed sixth over the off track. He could factor into the early pace of the Preakness. It’s a matter of how long he’ll stick around.

Sporting Chance (20-1): Lukas' other contender, he just missed the board in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile, a race won by a longshot in the slop. Draw a line through it? Going back to the Blue Grass, he was competitive, but again veered out in deep stretch costing him third.

Tenfold (30-1): He was late to the races, similar to Justify, and opened 2-for-2 before running fifth in the Arkansas Derby last out. There was little pace to go at there, and trainer Steve Asmussen thinks this colt will be special.

Givemeaminit (30-1): It took this one seven races to break his maiden, but we’ve been here before with Dallas Stewart-trained colts. Don’t count them completely out. Tale of Verve finished second to American Pharoah at 28-1.

Diamond King (50-1): He also shows up in probables for the Grade 3 Peter Pan this weekend at Belmont, but as a Federico Tesio winner, he’s automatically qualified for the Preakness. That’s the apparent spot for the John Servis trainee, who’s a multiple stakes winner.

Other logical Preakness contenders could include Telekinesis, who was second to My Boy Jack in Keeneland's Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. Trainer Mark Casse said that as of this week, he's not planning to enter a horse but that nothing is set in stone. Should they be deemed fresh enough to run again, Baffert-trained Restoring Hope and Greyvitos ran 12th and 13th, respectively, in the Pat Day Mile.

The Bovada offshore race book also lists Hofburg, Runaway Ghost and Noble Indy on the board, but none of those three are said to be under consideration for the Preakness.