Preakness 2018 favorite Justify has 'main ingredient' to win

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was up early Friday to oversee Justify’s training at Pimlico Race Course, the morning before the 2018 Preakness Stakes. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winner and 1-2 morning line favorite went out to the track shortly after 5:30 a.m. for a controlled gallop of 1½ miles.

Baffert typically sends his horses to the track later in the morning, but training hours ended earlier than usual due to the 11:30 a.m. first-race post time for the Black-Eyed Susan Day program. He arrived at the track at 5 a.m.

“We wanted to beat the rain,” Baffert said a later in the morning. “It quit raining when we went out there. It always does. It always quits.”

Much of the East Coast has been drenched by rain this week and with more wet weather in the forecast for Saturday, the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown is very likely to be contested over a muddy or sloppy surface. With that in mind, Baffert stepped away from questions about how the race will develop and who might challenge his speedy colt. Justify will start from Post No. 7 in the field of eight with Mike Smith aboard.

“Nobody knows. When it’s muddy like that, nobody knows,” Baffert said. “I see a horse like Quip, Wayne’s (D. Wayne Lukas) horse Sporting Chance. Wayne says he’s going to be out there. Who knows? We know we have a quick horse and he’s fast. The first quarter is going to be fast. It always is, especially when you have mud.”

Justify won the Derby over a sloppy sealed track at Churchill Downs by 2½ lengths over Good Magic, and Baffert is not worried about whether he will handle the surface Saturday. Justify broke his maiden on Feb. 18 and has been impressive in all four of his starts. Baffert isn’t looking for him to make a big step forward in the Preakness.

“I think he just has to stay the way he is,” Baffert said. “He ran hard early and fast (in the Derby). We’re all sort of in the same boat. We’re coming back. It’s muddy. The break still is so important. The main thing is that you have a good horse. That’s the main ingredient.”

Since the Preakness always has a far smaller field than the Derby, the race dynamics and strategy tend to be consistent with two-turn dirt races throughout the year.

“Everyone is trying to ride, they want to get a piece,”Baffert said. “The Derby is a completely different mindset. Here, everybody is trying to run first, second or third. I don’t think anybody is going to be in a real big hurry. With 20 horses, you have to be in a hurry to stay out of danger.”

Baffert said he realized that Justify, a massive, chestnut son of Scat Daddy, was above average when he arrived at his barn at Santa Anita. The eye-opener came during a five-furlong breeze in 1:01 1/5 on Jan. 29.

“I’ve had a lot of confidence in him ever since we worked him the first time,” Baffert said. “He showed us what a truly gifted horse he was. We’re here again.  What he’s done in a short period of time, it takes a really special horse to do what he’s done.” 

Even though the colt was getting a very late start by the usual Derby prep timetable, Baffert thought Justify had a chance to make the start of the Triple Crown on May 5.

 “When he worked that one day, I thought ‘We have a shot,’” Baffert said.  “But you can’t miss anything. Then when he broke his maiden … I knew he was going to win that day, but he didn’t win the way I wanted him to win. He was a little rank. We took the blinkers off and then Mike rode him on the wet track (March 11 in an allowance victory).”

Baffert said he had the colt wear blinkers in the first race because it was so vital to his chance to make the Kentucky Derby to win that race.

“We knew we had something special, we had a chance,” Baffert said. "When he broke his maiden, I thought, ‘I have two really good horses, him and McKinzie.’ We had Solomini, too. When McKinzie got hurt it was like, ‘The backup horse is pretty good, too.’  But they still have to prove themselves.”

Justify subbed for McKinzie in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and beat the formidable Bolt d’Oro. Since then, he has brought comparisons to Baffert’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. 

“What he has done since February, you have to be a superstar,” Baffert said. “He’s like Pharoah. They are superstars.”

And Baffert said that American Pharoah also had a wow factor to him during his early months in his barn in 2014.

“They are superstars,” he said. “What they have in common is that they are extremely fast. They both could have won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. They are just good horses. They are superior horses."

Baffert grew up in Arizona and was a star trainer in the Quarter Horse racing world before moving to training Thoroughbreds. He said he was struck by Justify when he saw him for the first time.

“He’s so beautiful. He looks like a giant Quarter Horse,” Baffert said. “He has muscle. He’s almost the same size as Pharoah, but he’s just muscular. He’s got muscle on muscle and he has this presence about him. He is a big, fast son of a gun. He’s quick, though. Light on his feet.”