Fair odds: Prairie Bayou runner is your all-stakes Pick 4 single

With the expected scratch of Patches O'Houlihan in the Holiday Cheer Stakes, the favorite in the Prairie Bayou Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park ascends not only to the most likely winner of his race but also any race as part of the first-ever synthetic championship.

Dresden Row is a multiple Grade 3 winner on Woodbine's Tapeta surface. His four-wide rally came up short last time in a Grade 2, but his Ragozin Figures tower above his adversaries here. We will see how short he ends up in the actual wagering, but I will be willing to lock my money in as a single in the all-stakes Pick 4.

But what about the verticals? Surely with 14 entrants and 12 expected to start, there will be value underneath the obvious chalk. 

Wadsworth is the clear alternative, so much so that he likely will be worth playing against. His 2-for-3 record at Turfway is worth noting, but talent-wise he's just one of the ones after the favorite. He is likely to be a clear second choice. Let's try to beat him out of the trifecta.

Paros is getting both a class and surface test here, and I think those question marks will keep enough bettors away that we can gamble on him. That was a nice turf race last out at Keeneland at this distance, and I love that Luis Saez won aboard him there and rides right back. Assuming fair odds, I will be keying this horse underneath Dresden Row.