Prairie Bayou fair odds: Face the ghost of Derby picks past

The march to the $300,000 Kentucky Cup begins on Saturday at Turfway Park with the Prairie Bayou Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile test on the Florence, Ky., oval's synthetic Tapeta surface.

And it's a classic dilemma for this handicapper, as it pits one of my personal favorite horses against an obviously yet potentially overlaid favorite.

After picking Tiz the Bomb in so may races – including the Kentucky Derby – following his Jeff Ruby Stakes victory over this same track in 2021, am I really going to risk letting him beat me here?

Well, yes and no. He certainly is intriguing given this is his first start back on the synthetic and trainer Ken McPeek is removing blinkers, a generally positive move for the veteran conditioner. But Wolfie's Dynaghost is an imposing force.

The favorite for this event has controlling speed, and other than Tiz the Bomb's synthetic efforts two years ago, is easily the fastest of this group. 

Thankfully there is a full field expected: 14 entered and only 12 can go. Thus, there is an opportunity to have my cake and eat it too. From a multi-race wagering standpoint, Wolfie's Dynaghost will be a strong single on most tickets with Tiz the Bomb the lone backup when linked with other logical contenders. From a vertical wagering standpoint, I'll do an exacta box, use both in the trifecta and then press Wolfie's Dynaghost on top with Tiz the Bomb either second or third.

That is pending prices in line with my fair odds, of course. The other horse I'll keep an eye on the tote on is no. 5 Hush of a Storm. He has overlay potential based on my fair odds versus morning line, and if that manifests then I'll work him into the mix with my top two.

Coverage of Turfway Park on Horse Racing Nation is provided in part by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.