Post-Breeders’ Cup handle bucks summer-fall trends

After handle declines each month from April to October, there was little hope that the rest of the year would go any differently when November began with a decrease in betting on the Breeders' Cup.

But racing has shown a resilience in the seven weeks since the Breeders' Cup, with a 1.4 percent increase against the same period last year. Although that does not quite outpace the inflation rate of about 3 percent in that time, it is a big win when graded on the curve of seven consecutive down months and a 5 percent decrease over that entire period.

Leading the charge was Churchill Downs Inc., whose portfolio of five Thoroughbred facilities includes three that run dates after the Breeders' Cup: its flagship facility in Louisville, Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky and Fair Grounds in New Orleans. All three posted increases in the period, and Turfway and Fair Grounds, which opened Nov. 29 and Nov. 17, respectively, are doing especially well.

Fair Grounds is up 43.7 percent, and Turfway is up 54.9 percent. A 20.7 percent increase in purses and a more reliable turf course likely have helped Fair Grounds, but Turfway is racing off a very similar book as last year, as purses are up just 3.3 percent there.

"We've put a lot of focus into improving the racing product-both for our horsemen and horseplayers-and appreciate the positive response from both groups, which has led to positive handle numbers," Churchill executive director of racing Gary Palmisano Jr. said. 

The three CDI-owned tracks accounted for $190.6 million of the total handle since Breeders' Cup for a 16.9 percent share of the overall market. Its share last year was 14.3 percent. All other tracks are down 1.7 percent in the same period.

While two meetings that recently opened have done well, another that closed Dec. 17 also posted big gains in the time period.

Woodbine raced another week compared with last year, but even on a per-race basis, handle was up 3.5 percent with total handle up 23.4 percent. 

"Our 2023 Thoroughbred racing meeting produced very strong results thanks to our exciting racing product, the strength of the Woodbine brand, and the hard work of our team and the entire Woodbine horse racing community," CEO Miachel Copeland said. "The results are especially encouraging considering the industry trends our sport is facing with increased competition from sports betting, growing purses ... horse supply and larger macro-economic factors like inflation and the uncertainty of the U.S. dollar.

"While we are proud of our results, we are also focused on the industry trends and opportunities that will help us navigate these headwinds."

It's not just the "major league" circuits holding sway. Penn National Gaming owns Mahoning Valley Race Course and Zia Park, which are up 30.4 percent and 55.1 percent, respectively.

Zia, in particular, made a big move this year by working with horsemen to run fewer days while offering higher purses, and bettors responded to the day-in-day-out better product with a 57.7 percent increase in handle per race.

"The overall quality of races has been good. We've had a good mix of some new horsemen and New Mexico-based guys running their best horses," Penn National vice president of racing Chris McErlean said. "The plan came together the way we thought it would, and it's great to see bettors respond."

Horsemen responded, too, as field size grew from fewer than 7.5 horses last year to almost nine this year. Average daily purses for overnight races totaled $340,000 a day, which McErlean said is a record level for any New Mexico track.

"The idea was if we put the (purse) money out there, then the horsemen will respond and so will bettors, and that's what happened," McErlean said. "It's a good story. It's a good case for the less-is-more camp."

All Thoroughbreds celebrate being a year older on Jan. 1, but the racing calendar in many ways begins Dec. 26 with opening day at Santa Anita after racing's only completely dark day of the year: Christmas, Dec. 25.