Poll: Fans hesitant to attend sporting events; Derby implications?

When Churchill Downs announced a postponement of the 2020 Kentucky Derby from May 2 to Sept. 5, track officials hoped the move would give the race a better chance of running in front of a full grandstand.

"We also feel confident that we are going to run the Kentucky Derby, and we are going to run it with a crowd,” Bill Carstanjen, Churchill Downs CEO, said during the March 17 announcement.

The Derby’s postponement came less than a week after most major North American professional and college sports organizations suspended play in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

But a new poll indicates that most Americans, including a majority of sports fans, would wait until after the development of a COVID-19 vaccine before returning to the stands.

The Sharkey Institute within Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business on Thursday announced the findings of its Seton Hall Sports Poll. The poll was conducted by phone Monday through Wednesday with 768 respondents.

Respondents were asked what they would do if leagues resumed play before the development of a vaccine. Seventy-two percent of Americans said they would not attend games, with 12 percent saying they would if social distancing could be maintained. Thirteen percent said they would feel safe attending as in the past. 

Among sports fans, the number of respondents saying they would not attend games dropped to 61 percent.

Will Americans have access to a COVID-19 vaccine by Derby Day? The Associated Press reported Wednesday that “even if the research goes well, it is expected to take more than a year before any vaccine could be widely available."

Should sporting events take place with no fans present, 76 percent of respondents said they would watch broadcasts with the same interest as before. Sixteen percent said they would be less interested, and seven percent said they would be more interested.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.

Horse racing as become a test model of sorts for conducting sporting events without fans. The Louisiana Derby and Florida Derby have both run behind closed doors since social distancing guidelines went into effect, and racing continues this weekend at a handful of North American tracks.