Polk Blasts Off In DerbyWars $20,000 Saturday Game

"Most of the people who participate in Derby Wars  tournaments are excellent handicappers and those that win or have a good day are the ones who simply happened to make good (lucky) choices that day," said Polk. "It also helped that I had two entries into the tournament (I paid for one and won the second one on Saturday) - it was the second entry that won the day."

 

Polk has a particular handicapping tool he prefers to use, called "Black Magic" - a program based on pace principles. 

 

"It provides a great deal more information than just pace," he said. "I'll identify 2-4 horses per race that are candidates for tournament picks. This is normally based on a combination of input from a wide variety of considerations, including the handicapping program, the racing form, class, pace, speed ratings, form, angles, odds, horse-for-course considerations - pretty much a kitchen-sink operation. While that sounds pretty mainstream, to do well in these tournaments you have to be willing to approach the process in a contrarian way - that is, I need to find horses I like and that have a chance to win but that the public will overlook, as (handicapping strategy author) Michael Pizzolla says."

 

Polk says he submits his DerbyWars picks long before the first race begins, as he has done all of the work ahead of time. After starting Saturday's contest zero-for-three, his "Black Magic" picks kicked in!

 

"I then did what every tournament player dreams of - win tree races in a row, starting with Bo Talon in CD 8 and who paid $54. My #1 pick for that race was a first time starter, Latent Revenge, and I put him on my first entry, but luckily went with Bo on my second entry. That was followed by AQ 9 (Hot City paid $7) and DMR 3 (Dynamite paid $9).  Those last two winners are normally below the odds I want to bet, but I liked them and did not have a good feel with those races so I just went with my #1 picks. By that time I had gone from being tied for last to the top 5."

 

After hitting the top of the leaderboard, Polks took a break from the screentime to walk his dog with his wife, Lou Ann. 

He said, "There are a lot of good things about walks, and one of them is that you can't fret about or change selections. So we had a nice walk and while we were out my new favorite horse, #12 Son of War won and paid $54 in DMR 4. I thought that race was a toss-up among #10 Yes Yes Yes and # 11 Wicked Finance and was worried about the post position on all of them so if I had not been walking the dog it's possible I could have changed the selection."

 

Once back at his computer, he was excited to find himself at the very top of the leaderboard - but his incredible plays weren't over!

 

"At this point I'm in first place and am cheering for favorites to win (but betting longer shots for protection).   And just for fun I was lucky enough to hit two more longer shots: 

 

DMR 6 was won by #2 American Sun paying $21.20.  She was a first time starter with good FTS breeding and a good FTS trainer in a relatively weak field...and Pedroza has been on fire lately.

 

To top it off and clinch the day, I selected #11 Play Hard to Get in DMR 7. He won and paid $24.60.   He had won on the DMR turf and his last race a a good one just a couple of lengths behind #6 Husband's Folly who was going off at 9-2."

 

For his runaway victory, Polk takes home $7,125 cash plus a spot in the $100K game on December 26-27!

 

In second place was Marshall Gramm (truxtonstables) with a final score of $123.80 for the $2,650 second prize. Third place was Anthony Trezza (youare2020) with $120.10 for the $1,275 cash prize, and in fourth place was Daniel Cronin (keenelanddan) with a final score of $111.60 for $1,000. The top 4 finishers all qualified for the $100,000 game!

 

Winner Polk's advice for new players is simple: "Based on my experience Saturday, my advice is play two entries, be lucky and go for a walk!"