Pocahontas has better path to future success than Iroquois

With so much time to get to the end of the trail, it is no wonder the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes never has produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Maybe more of a surprise is that it has not graduated a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, either.

It is a different story for the Pocahontas Stakes (G3), the companion race for 2-year-old fillies. Like the Iroquois, it will be run again Saturday at Churchill Downs. Both races lead off the points chases in qualifying for the 2023 renewals of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and the Derby.

Run since 1969, the Pocahontas has turned five of its starters into Oaks winners, and two others have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

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Whether it is the depth – or lack of it – between 2-year-old males and females or just the luck of the results, the Pocahontas historically has been a better gauge for future success than the Iroquois.

As a prism for the Breeders’ Cup, the sample size is small. That is because the two Churchill Downs races used to be run at about the same time of year as the year-end championships. That was until the points systems for Oaks and Derby qualifying were created 10 years ago. The Pocahontas and Iroquois were moved then from mid-autumn to late summer.

In that time, Untapable in 2013-14 and Serengeti Empress in 2018-19 pulled off the Pocahontas-Oaks double. Sweet Alliance in 1976-77 was the only other filly who had done under the old schedule.

Rachel Alexandra, who was second in the 2008 Pocahontas, and Believe You Can, who was sixth in 2011, came back the following springs with victories in the Oaks. Rachel’s rivals might still be running. They finished 20 1/4 lengths up the track in what would turn out to be a championship 2009 season and, eventually, a place in the Hall of Fame.

Although May 2023 is in the faraway distance right now, the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland is easy to see on the horizon. It is only seven weeks and a little more than an hour’s drive from this weekend at Churchill Downs.

Twelve horses have made it from the September running of the Pocahontas to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Take Charge Brandi was the most noteworthy. Owned by Willis Horton and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the Giant’s Causeway filly was lightly regarded after finishing fifth at Churchill Downs in September 2014. At Santa Anita that fall, Víctor Espinoza rode her to an early lead and stayed there, scoring a 61-1 upset in the Juvenile Fillies.

Thanks to a scheduling quirk in 1987, deep closer Epitome pulled off the first Pocahontas-Juvenile Fillies double. That was the year the Breeders’ Cup was held in late November at old Hollywood Park. That gave trainer Phil Hauswald 13 days to prepare his Summing filly to take jockey Pat Day to a 30-1 upset in California.

The history of the Pocahontas cannot be fully discussed without mentioning My Juliet. After winning in 1974, she went on to become the champion sprinter of 1976 and a Hall of Fame induction three years ago.

First run in 1982, the Iroquois may have a spotty record in producing Derby starters, but it has sent 14 horses to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, including at least one each of the last eight years.

Not This Time in 2016 came closest to scoring that elusive Iroquois-Juvenile double. Seven weeks after he won for jockey Robby Albarado and trainer Dale Romans at Churchill Downs, he was a 5-2 post-time favorite at Santa Anita. After a bumpy start, he finished second, coming up a neck short of catching Classic Empire at the finish.

Like Take Charge Brandi, Not This Time was sired by Giant’s Causeway, who died 4 1/2 years ago.