Pocahontas fair odds: Full-field Ky. Oaks prep begs for a price
You know the field for the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs is competitive when I insist on including the also-eligible horses in my 100-point line for the race.
This is significant not only because it will require extra work on Saturday no matter who scratches but also because it lets me cheat a little bit by inflating prices on all 16 horses when only 14 can start.
If there is a sliver of opportunity among the top three choices, La Cara, Stilettos and Kimchi Cat, it's that I see Kimchi Cat as the most likely winner and Mike Battaglia's morning line has Stilettos as the favorite, with La Cara right there as well. My fair odds are mostly similar, but if Stilettos takes favorite money, then maybe Kimchi Cat ends up worth a play.
Why do I like Kimchi Cat slightly more than the other pair? Her maiden win was a gate-to-wire effort going 5 1/2 furlongs before coming right back in an off-the-turf stakes to draw away after pressing a fast pace. Tyler Gaffalione was aboard for both wins and sticks here. Given the outside post, a stalk-and-pounce trip going longer seems more ideal than trying to gut it out on the front end from post 13, if no scratches are inside of her.
Contrast that with Stilettos, who seems to have only one way to go given her two wins to date, and that's speed. La Cara stretched out last out to finally get a dub while racing on the front end, so the mile is less a question mark for her than the others.
Are there big prices worth considering? I think so, but until we see the board it will be hard to know the best plays for sure. My best guess is maybe Liam in the Dust could be worth a flutter. She won gate-to-wire in her only career start going seven furlongs at Ellis. Brisnet did not rate that pace as particularly fast, but the pace ratings were solid throughout and a mile shouldn't be an issue.
The one I'm most against at the morning-line price is Strong State, who gets blinkers after her poor Spinaway (G1) showing. She has run three times, and the lone win was the only time she made the lead. That was going 5 1/2 furlongs, and it just seems the waters are too deep here to take the 5-1 morning-line price.