Play Saratoga Sunday with Charting Horse Value

With all the new Horse Racing Nation handicapping products, some of the most buzz we are getting is around Charting Horse Value. Created by Jeff Bessa, Charting Horse Value (CHV) has been around for only a couple of years and was added to the Horse Racing Nation handicapping product roster just a couple of months ago. 

I've been testing CHV out for a few weeks now, and I wanted to share how it has helped my handicapping and dive into a few races from Saratoga Sunday. The CHV tables have a lot of great information, so I'll break that down a bit. 

The only product that ranks based on today's factors

Using CHV on a regular basis, three things stand out to me. One, CHV is the only computerized or PP-type product that I know of that factors today's field of horses in the rankings. Here's what I mean. Looking at past performance or sheets products, everything is truly in the past. Just like it says.The only information that pertains to today includes trainer stats, jockey stats and the like.

But CHV takes it a step further. Is there a lot of speed in the race? Then a closer might be ranked higher. Is a horse back on its preferred distance and surface? Then it gets an upgrade. Does a horse from a low-percentage barn get a top jockey? That's taken into consideration, too.  The CHV advanced computer algorithms take into account dozens of factors. 

Odds lines are incredibly helpful

The second thing that stands out to me is the odds line. There are actually two, but I always start with the PFDS odds (performance, form, distance, surface). It's super-helpful to have an odds line to refer to each race. No line is going to be perfect, but this helps to see contenders you might have missed or when you're dreaming about a contender that really should be a pretender. It also helps you spot overlays at post time. 

Identifying value before the day starts is huge

The final thing is the value line with the green-shaded boxes. This is great. What CHV is doing here is comparing its odds to the morning line.  Obviously, the real odds can change from the morning line, but the green-shaded value boxes show you horses that look like value before the day starts. This helps you plan on races to key in on, whether in single-race betting or when you're looking at wagers such as the Pick 3, Pick 4 or Pick 5.

Saratoga Race 8 

Looking at Saratoga race 8, what stands out to me is the very even odds line between the top four contenders, which I have highlighted in red. At first glance, when looking at this race, I noticed that Big Invasion was 6-5 on the morning line and comes in with a gaudy 4-of-5 record. So is this race the place to single the favorite, should you or spread and try to get value beating the favorite?

The chart below suggests trying a couple of others to beat Big Invasion. And even though it ranks Asymmetric on top, note the green value highlights for four of the top five horses: Asymmetric (9), One Timer (10), Nobals (7) and Run Curtis Run (8). What this means is these horses offer value compared to their morning lines. And if they float up from their morning lines, then the value is even greater. Getting good value is important because betting underlays is the quickest way to go broke in this game.

Looking at Asymmetric specifically, part of what is driving him to be on top is the Best Odds of 3.5. What the best odds means is if a horse was rated off of their best race. 

Saratoga Race 9

The charting for race 9 is a bit different in that it finds most of the value in the top pick Gun It, who invades from Churchill Downs. The PFDS odds line also isolates the top three as the ones to focus on. Again, what is driving the value on Gun It is the 6-1 morning line, yet the the odds line of 3.5. So keep in mind that if Gun It comes way down from the 6-1 morning line, he still may be a solid choice but the value is reduced somewhat. 

Saratoga Race 10 

Race 10 is a full field of 12 on the turf, but CHV find this race very top heavy. Note that only the 5, 10 and 12 have odds lines under 10-1. At the same time, they aren't necessarily offering great value. 

Playing the late Pick 3

So if you are wondering whether to spread in the full field in the last race or the other races, these three charts can help answer your question. 

Some players might instinctually want to go narrower in the shorter fields of Race 8 and Race 9, and then deeper in the finale, but it might be better to do the opposite. If you can get down to just two or three contenders in the last, this might give you room to take two or three contenders in Races 8 and 9 and try to get past the favorites for a great Pick 3 payoff. 

How to subscribe to Charting Horse Value 

Charting Horse Value is available every day on Horse Racing Nation both for daily purchase and a monthly subscription for only $39.99.  CHV covers every track every day, so that's a ton of information for one monthly subscription.