Playing Gulfstream's Tapeta: Which shippers are best bets?

As horseplayers struggle to figure out Gulfstream’s new synthetic Tapeta, Horse Racing Nation is examining factors at play on this new surface. Last week we took a look at good and bad post positions on Tapeta as well as the best and worst jockeys on Gulfstream’s Tapeta.   Horse Racing Nation’s Shipper Stats Report provides valuable clues for handicappers about how runners may perform based on what track they’re coming from. This angle is always important for any track to see how horses from one track may perform when racing at different tracks. 

All surface trends at Gulfstream

Looking at all GP surfaces for the last 90 days, one of the best tracks to play shippers from is Monmouth Park. They are winning at a 14 percent rate, and compared to their odds that’s worth a +23 percent impact score. Conversely, Keeneland is one of the worst ship-in tracks. Keeneland shippers are only 9-for-84 (11 percent), but they are being bet strongly like they should be winning 16 percent, creating a negative impact score of -49 percent.  

Next, let’s take a look at the Tapeta-only shippers. 

Shipping in to win on Tapeta

As one might guess, Woodbine shippers do very well. From 50 to start, 11 have won, for a winning rate of 22 percent. The HRN Impact score for these horses is a +32 percent, indicating that these shippers are still great value wagers. This is one synthetic surface that is translating well to the Tapeta. Although not all horses will appreciate the going the same way, Woodbine shippers can generally be taken seriously. Another track with a synthetic surface, Turfway Park, has a small sample size to analyze. Only 15 horses have shipped in and three of those have won, good for a positive impact of +11 percent. 

Horses coming from Monmouth Park are overperforming as well. They are 7-for-26 for a win rate of 27 percent. The HRN Impact score is an impressive +119 percent. One possible reason is that riding crop usage is restricted at Monmouth. When these horses make their next start, riders now have the opportunity to urge their horses more effectively, which could create improved performance.  

Other tracks with strong positive HRN Impact scores include Parx, Belmont Park, Kentucky Downs and Colonial Downs.  .

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   [Related: Hottest and coldest jockeys on Gulfstream's Tapeta]  

Tampa Bay Downs horses also are struggling to find the winner’s circle on the Tapeta. Only one horse has won from 41 to start, resulting in a 2 percent win rate and an HRN Impact score of -65 percent. The horses that would be most competitive may be running on Gulfstream’s dirt track instead.

Other tracks with strongly negative HRN Impact scores include Keeneland, Laurel, Del Mar and the Meadowlands.

Looking at first-time starters

It is also worth noting that first-timers have held their own on the Tapeta surface. Winning 10 percent of starts good for an HRN Impact score of -1 percent, these horses are essentially breaking even. 

For more information beyond shippers, check out the rest of the HRN Pro Reports. The reports tackle five of the most difficult handicapping challenges that players face every day:

• Pace report - Finds the fastest and slowest paces at every track
• Post-position bias report - Identifying good & bad posts at every track and distance
  
• Shipper stats report - How shippers do coming into every track
  
• First-timer insight report - Help identifying live 1st and 2nd-timers 
• Jockey report - Which jockeys are good and bad bets and when?

All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of the HRN Pro Membership package, which are on sale this week for only $9.99 for the entire first month.