Play these superfecta keys Saturday at Aqueduct, Churchill

These Saturday races at Aqueduct and Churchill meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 1

Nine fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up face off in this maiden claimer on the dirt at 6 1/2 furlongs. Six runners exit dirt races – three at Aqueduct, two at Churchill and one at Saratoga – with the final three runners exiting Aqueduct turf races. Two runners are trying a dirt sprint for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in three starts overall and at the distance.

Robert Falcone Jr. sends out no. 8 Take Time to Dream, who logged three fourth place finishes in sprints and was fourth at the second call in her mile try. She looks like a grinder who fits in a superfecta play and is your key runner at odds of 4-1.

Small stable, low percentage trainer Greg DiPrima saddles no. 3 It Wasn’t Me for her first sprint try. She has run two dirt routes finishing second both times sandwiched around two off-the board turf routes. Those dirt runs put her in the mix at odds of 10-1.

No. 6 Addressable Market has five top four finishes in six lifetime turf route runs and tries dirt for the first time. She has a grinding style and should pass horses late for a share at odds of 15-1.

The Mike Maker runner no. 4 Frau Diablo showed speed on debut finishing fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint and followed that with a toss-out in the slop at the same distance. This filly is going to be on or near the lead and last for a share at odds of 5-1.

Ken McPeek, who has two wins, a second and third in five starts at the meet, saddles no. 1 Kid’s Last Laugh for her eighth lifetime start. She is typical of most McPeek runners as a closer bringing a record of three placings in seven starts and is a strong fit against this field at odds of 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 1, 3, 4 and 6 Total wager: $9.60.

Churchill Downs

Race 7

A full field of 12 has been entered in this one mile optional claimer for 2-year-olds on dirt, including two trained by Steve Asmussen and one being saddled by a new trainer. Eight runners stretch out on dirt for the first time and one is trying dirt for the first time. Ten runners exit dirt races: five at Churchill, two at Keeneland and one each at Mahoning Valley, Ellis and Belmont. The final two runners exit turf races at Keeneland and Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and is one of two at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every three starts. The pace is unpredictable with the presence of so many runners trying a route for the first time.

The Brad Cox runner no. 2 Bergen stretches out off a maiden win at six furlongs and while Cox has overall great numbers he is even better in the first at route situation. Bergen is your key runner at odds of 7-2.

No. 1 Who Dey trained by Tom Drury comes into this with three consecutive wins at three different Ohio tracks, two of them in state-bred stakes and the other in a dirt route. He is a solid improving player here at odds of 10-1.

Ben Colebrook has a solid barn and spots his runners very well. No. 6 Knicks Storm came off the pace to win by open lengths on debut and projects to be a very strong player here in his first route try at odds of 10-1.

McPeek sends out no. 8 Mystik Dan, who debuted at 6 1/2 furlongs with a front running second and followed that with an open length victory at 5 1/2 furlongs. This runner also tries a route for the first time, looks very fast and is a solid player at 4- 1.

Asmussen sends out no. 5 Informed Patriot, who has a first, second and fourth in three dirt starts including one route in the slop. He has tactical speed and can also pass horses and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 5, 6 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

A field of nine has been entered in the Ed Brown Stakes, a 6 1/2 dirt dash exclusively for 2-year-olds, including two trained by Steve Asmussen. All runners exit dirt races - three each at Churchill and Keeneland and one each at Charles Town, Gulfstream and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and one runner has tried the distance resulting in a win.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in two starts. The pace should be fast with the advantage to closers.

Asmussen sends out no. 5 Bye Bye Liam off a six-furlong win in the slop in which he passed horses late after an even fourth on debut on turf. He should once again pass horses late and is attractively priced at 8-1 as your key runner.

No. 8 Divieto has two wins in three starts, one at a route where he wired the field and one in a sprint where he came off pace. This runner has demonstrated the ability to both be on the lead and pass runners and that makes him a great value at 8-1.

Whitworth Beckman has a successful small stable. His runner no. 2 Agoo has a first and second in two lifetime starts, including a win at this distance last time out. He should be a solid stretch factor and is 6-1.

No. 6 Normandy Hero trained by Rodolphe Brisset has two wins, a second and a fourth in five lifetime sprint tries and can pass runners or be on the lead. This is a positive factor against this field loaded with speed. His odds are 5-1.

No. 9 Booth trained by Cox is simply too fast to ignore off his open- lengths win on debut at six furlongs. He is going to take a lot of money and is 7-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 6, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

A full field of 12 has been entered in the Fern Creek Stakes, a 6 1/2- furlong dirt dash for 2-year-old fillies. Ten runners exit dirt races - five at Keeneland, three at Churchill and one each at Aqueduct and Saratoga - with the final two runners coming out of turf races at Keeneland.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of five in six starts overall and two runners have tried the distance resulting in wins.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every three starts. The pace should be fast with the advantage to closers.

Trainer Phil Bauer has eye-popping numbers for the year and his runner, no. 4 Halina’s Forte, won on debut at 5 1/2 furlongs by open lengths. She should be part of the mix throughout and is your key runner at 5-2.

Doug O’Neill sends out no. 6 Ma Rae’s Girl for her second start after a six furlong win on debut coming from off the pace. She has some closing punch and should improve in her second start at juicy odds of 20-1.

D. Wayne Lukas sends out no. 3 Saratoga Secret for her third start after breaking her maiden at 5 1/2 furlongs and following that with a second in a graded stake at Saratoga at six furlongs. She can pass horses as a close-to-the-pace runner and is 12-1.

The Asmussen runner no. 10 Sharp Tune has won both her tries, wiring the field in a short sprint and coming from off the pace at 6 1/2 furlongs in the slop. She will be part of the mix late and is 6-1.

Cox sends out the probable favorite no. 1 Youalmosthadme for her sixth start, the most in the field. She comes into this with three wins, a second and a third at distances ranging from 4.5 furlongs to a mile, running on the lead or off-pace. She is 8-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 3, 6 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.