Play 4 superfectas Saturday at Kentucky Downs, Del Mar
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available.
However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
Superfecta key wagering savings
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Kentucky Downs provides two opportunities on turf and Del Mar provides one opportunity each on dirt and turf.
At Kentucky Downs
Race 5
The Mint Million Mile (G3) is a mile on turf event for 3-year olds and up including four starting for the first time on this oval. A field of 10 has been entered including three trained by Mike Maker. Eight runners exit turf races including three at Ellis Park, two at Churchill and one each at Laurel, Saratoga and Monmouth with the last two runners exiting dirt races at Ellis and Saratoga. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two of every three races overall and three of four at the distance. The runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five starts for races that show. I expect a solid pace with the advantage to off pace runners.
Dallas Stewart saddles No. 10 Cavalry Charge who has competed in five graded turf stakes out of his seven starts all turf this season showing three in the money finishes in those seven tries. He has experience at this oval winning at the distance in his only start last year coming from near the pace. His running style as a grinder make him a factor and if the pace is slower than anticipated he will be an even stronger superfecta factor at odds of 12-1 as your key runner.
No. 5 Kentucky Ghost has two Kentucky Downs starts and finished second in both those tries, should be in the second half of the field with a lot of energy in reserve and while he does not win much he has finished second a third of his starts on both dirt and turf. I anticipate a solid late move at odds of 12-1.
No. 4 Somelikeithotbrown trained by Mike Maker is the speed of the race and while I expect this race to have off pace runners making moves in the stretch, this runner has so much ability to clear the field early that he remains a dangerous presence till the latter stages of the race with a three of five record at the distance without a win. He is 9-2.
No. 1 Mr Dumas is five of seven at the distance, comes from off the pace, and has finished in the top three eight consecutive tries with one try over this oval finishing third. He may be the betting favorite at post time.
Another of the Maker runners is No. 7 Atone who tries Kentucky Downs for the first time and runs extremely balanced, is tractable, and should be very competitive off his nine consecutive top four finishes as one of the lower priced runners.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 10 with 1, 4, 5 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 8
The Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes (G3) a one mile on turf event for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including five trying Kentucky Downs for the first time. Eight runners exit turf races including two each at Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis and one each at Colonial, Monmouth, Del Mar and Monmouth with the final runners coming out of a synthetic race at Woodbine and a dirt even at Mountaineer. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three in five races overall and three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. I expect a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.
No. 3 Hendy Woods for Mark Casse is an always coming at you runner with a six of seven record including four wins at the distance along with a win in her lone Kentucky Downs try and she also ships well running at six different tracks in her last 10 starts. She should grind her way to a solid finish as your key runner at odds of 9-2.
No. 5. Market Rumor is not a close to the pace type and has seven top four finishes in her last eight tries, is extremely consistent and should be making a bid late at attractive superfecta odds of 15-1 with this her first Kentucky Downs try.
Trainer Roger Attfield saddles No. 4 Lady Speightspeare who sports a seven of nine turf record and a two win in three start record at the distance. She will be very close to the lead and should be there at the end at odds of 8-1 in her first Kentucky Downs try.
No. 8 Princess Grace has a 10 of 11 lifetime record on turf including six wins one of which was at Kentucky Downs last year in this race as she is the defending champion. She always shows up and should be one of the lower priced runners.
No. 1 Dalika should be on or near the lead, and given the anticipated soft pace, should be around at the end as a runner who will likely be over bet with only two second place finishes in six tries at the distance.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 1, 4, 5 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.
At Del Mar
Race 3
A full field of 12 has been entered in this five furlong on the turf optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up including two each trained by Peter Miller and Phil D’Amato with two runners coming in with new trainers and two coming in off layoff including one of the runners with a new trainer. The field includes 10 with last outs at Del Mar on the turf and two exiting dirt races at Dubai (Meydan) and Los Alamitos. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and three of five at the distance. The combined rate of leading at the second call is one in eight starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.
No. 12 Clayton Delaney trained by Phil D’Amato is going to be closing into fast fractions, should be visually impressive late, and brings a five of nine turf record overall finishing fourth last time out at this distance at Del Mar. He is a great superfecta player, should be keyed at odds of 12-1 and looks like an overlay.
No. 3 Commander Khai for Mark Glatt who has had a very solid Del Mar meeting is going to be coming from close to the pace and should inherit a placing in the latter stages of the race coming out of a route try which should be to his advantage late. He sports a three of six record at the distance with one win and his odds are 8-1.
No. 9 Lincoln City is off the claim for Peter Miller who excels in these situations and that alone suggests he will be a solid player even though he is only three of eight at the distance without a win. His odds are 6-1.
D’Amato also saddles No. 7 Gregory’s Pride who sports a four of five record at the distance and an overall 10 of 11 record on turf but seldom wins with only one win to his credit. He will be one of the runners taking money and has to be included and will be probably an underlay coming very late.
No. 1 Straight No Chaser has only one try a very fast wire to wire effort at this track and distance and figures to improve but he may face more pressure than last time out and he must be included even with that caveat.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 12 with 1, 3, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
This six furlong on the dirt claimer for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 11 including two each trained by Peter Miller and Jonathan Wong including two coming in off the claim. Five entrants exit Del Mar dirt events, four exit Del Mar turf events and the final two runners include one exiting a Santa Anita dirt race and another exiting a synthetic race at Golden Gate. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three in five starts overall and slightly better at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five starts for races that show. I anticipate a solid pace with the advantage to mid-pack runners.
No. 11 Tahoe Secrets has four tries with four top four finishes and has shown improvement over those tries. I anticipate further improvement as one of the lighter raced runners in the field who will be closing into very fast fractions late. He is your key runner at 6-1.
No. 1 Stormy Pattern exits four consecutive mile tries and cuts back to a distance where he shows one placing in one try. He should be a very strong stretch factor with the turn back passing horses late and improve his six of nine in the money record on dirt at odds of 8-1.
No. 10 Pioneering Papa is trying six furlongs for the first time since debut and he has never finished worse than fourth although two of those runs had very small fields. He wired the field in his only win and also passed runners in his other starts and is well worth inclusion at odds of 10-1.
Ryan Hanson has been having a tough meeting and brings in No. 6 Mickey From Wexford off the claim who is well placed here given his grinding running style and similar to No. 11 Tahoe Secrets this is only his fifth lifetime try and he sports three top four finishes in four tries. He is 15-1.
No. 3 Moose Mitchell should be near the lead but not on the lead and the claim by Peter Miller amplifies his inclusion as one of the lower priced runners with a solid chance to stick around for a top four placing.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 11 with 1, 3, 6 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.