Play these 4 superfectas Saturday at Keeneland, Aqueduct

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

At Keeneland

Race 5

This mile and one-sixteenth allowance race on the turf for 3-year-olds and up attracted nine horses including two trained by Paulo Lobo and one first time turf runner. Eight exit turf races including four at Kentucky Downs and one each at Saratoga, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Ellis Park and Monmouth with the final entrant exiting a dirt race at Churchill. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of over one in two starts overall and at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in seven tries for races that show. I expect a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

One of the Paulo Lobo runners is No. 7 Greyes Creek who has four wins and three fifth place finishes in his last 8 turf routes across two trainers against an average field size that is greater than today’s competition. He will be a strong stretch factor at odds of 15-1 and is your key runner.

Trainer Bret Calhoun is sending out No. 9 Mr. Wireless who is trying turf for first time and while Calhoun doesn’t have impressive figures doing this, his horse will be in a position right off the lead to be a strong factor late passing runners and given his running style and he is well worth including at odds of 20-1 for a horse with five wins in 10 lifetime starts.

No. 8 Winfromwithin is coming out of three straight Monmouth turf races for high percentage trainer Jorge Delgado. This runner has been in the top four nine of his last 10 starts primarily on turf and brings a solid record of four of six at the distance and surface. He is 4-1.

The other Lobo runners is No. 4 In Love who has met some of the toughest competition in the field coming out of five graded stakes in his last 10 starts. He will be a factor late on relatively short odds.

Chad Brown sends out a runner who will be moving late in No. 2 Mouillage a horse with a solid turf record of 12 in the money finishes in 13 tries across the U.S. and Europe. He exits races with largely small fields and this is going to be a race where the competition on entries alone will be a bigger challenge and he should be one of the betting favorites.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 2, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A nearly full field of 11 will face off in this dirt allowance race at six furlongs for 3-year-olds and up with runners having to meet a condition of starting for a claiming tag of $20K or less during the 2021-2022 season with one runner entered off the claim. All runners exit dirt races including seven at Churchill and one each at Monmouth, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Prairie Meadows and Saratoga. The field has combined for a better than one in two start in the money rate overall and at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second nearly one in three tries for races that show. I expect a fast pace with the advantage to mid-pack and off pace runners.

No. 4 Ultimate has a solid record at the distance with eight in the money finishes in 12 starts, runs with a pressing style, and is going to be a strong factor throughout off the pace at odds of 8-1 as your key runner.

The runner who will be among those moving late is No. 1 Don’t Forget who finished in the top four nine of his last ten tries and sports a nine of 13 record at the distance. He will be visually impressive late and a huge superfecta factor at odds of 15-1.

No. 11 The Queens Jules has a solid overall record of well over one in two tries in the money on all surfaces but does not have a very compelling record at this distance. His recent form is strong finishing in the top four fully eight of his last 10 starts with only one win. I expect him to grind his way to a superfecta finish at odds of 6-1.

No. 2 Alexandros is making his second start for new trainer Trisha Duncan who has a good record with very few starters. I anticipate this runner to be somewhere towards the front and be a strong stretch factor at odds of 12-1.

The hard-hitting No. 10 Beverly Park who has won 21 of 40 lifetime starts and has been in the money 30 of those starts is a very difficult runner to dismiss. He always is there whether he is on or off pace and the odds are 9-2.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 2, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

At Aqueduct

Race 8

A field of 10 will go one mile on the dirt in this claiming race for 3-year-olds and up including one two horse entry trained by Mertkan Kantamaci. All runners exit dirt races including six at Aqueduct, three at Saratoga and one at Delaware Park. The field has combined for a 60 percent in the money rate overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six tries for races that show. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 7 Ebben is making his first start for Chad Summers and is the epitome of a grinder. His record at the distance is a solid 50 percent in the money and this is better than his overall record all on dirt. He knows how to pass runners or be near the pace and at 8-1 is your key runner.

No. 4 Rocco Strong has by far the fewest starts in the field and has been in the money six of 13 tries on dirt and four of six at this distance. He raced very poorly his last time out at Delaware Park but his runs prior to that at Aqueduct were solid and he has the most upside potential here at odds of 8-1.

The entry of No. 1 Pioneer Spirit and No. 1a Mount Travers looks formidable and either runner should be part of the mix at the end. Both runners have solid in the money percentages, good tactical or near the lead speed, and while No. 1 Pioneer Spirit is the better of the two, they as an entry are an attractive 6-1.

No. 8 Chris and Dave a nine year old gelding has 81 career starts and has been in the money 50 of those starts. He has been claimed four of his last ten starts and just missed in his first try for Rob Atras who has a very strong record second time after being claimed. He is 4-1.

The runner that looks fastest on paper for trainer Axelle Solares who has French roots and connections to Tom Morley and Christophe Clement is No. 6 Gentleman Joe. This is his fourth different trainer in his last seven start and he sports an overall dirt record of two out of three runs in the money, brings strong tactical speed to the race, and should be relatively low odds.

$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 1, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Sands Point Stakes (G2) a mile and one-eighth race on the turf for 3-year-old fillies attracted nine including two each trained by Christophe Clement and Graham Motion with one of the Motion runners new to his barn and also trying turf for the first time.

The eight runners exiting turf races include two each at Kentucky Downs, Saratoga and Aqueduct with the final two runners coming out of turf races at Colonial and Royal Ascot in England. The dirt runner comes out of a Churchill race. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two in three starts overall and four of five total starts at the distance.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven tries. I expect a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Motion sends out the speedy No. 2 Vergara who has finished in the top four each of her seven turf tries across six different tracks including a win at Aqueduct. She figures to be near the lead throughout and looks like an overlay at 9-2 as your key runner.

No. 4 Canisy is a tractable runner which is a favorable position to be in for a runner with three in the money finishes in five turf tries including two wins one on the lead and one coming from off the pace. She is attractively priced at 8-1.

No. 5 Spirit and Glory has two wins in three starts on turf including one win at the distance since coming over from Ireland for trainer Robert Falcone Jr. She is a closer but her two wins were so solid at distances greater than a mile that she is a solid superfecta player at odds of 8-1.

No. 1 Skims trained by Shug McGaughey is going to be tracking the leaders and somewhere in the middle of the pack and she brings a five for eight turf record and one in the money finish in one try at the distance. I expect her to be a stretch factor at odds of 5-1.

The probable favorite is No. 9 Pizza Bianca the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner of 2021 who sports a five of six turf record and is running this distance for the first time. Her lone off the board finish was at Royal Ascot in a Group 1 race.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 1, 4, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.