Play Thursday's races with the Hot Jockeys Report
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The Horse Racing Nation Hot Jockey Report looks not only at jockey win percentage but also employs the HRN Impact Score. This score analyzes how a jockey's performance compares to what the wagering public expected.
The HJR is available as part of HRN's Pro Reports subscription that also includes Power Picks, Horses to Single, First-timer Insights, Pace, Post Bias, and Shipper Reports.
Through one week at Saratoga, it is apparent that Irad Ortiz, Jr. is being over-bet. On the main track, he's winning at 22 percent. Based on the odds of his mounts, however, that expected percentage is 27 percent. His HRN Impact score is -16 percent.
He's being over-bet on the grass as well, where his win percentage is 6 percent. His expected win rate is 19 percent, so his turf HRN Impact score is a ghastly -71 percent.
Other jockeys that were overbet on both surfaces for week one at Saratoga were Flavien Prat and Tyler Gaffalione. Betting strategy for week two with this information would be to find vulnerable favorites that Irad Ortiz, Jr. is riding and look to play against them. Taking a short price on any of Prat's or Gaffalione's mounts would also be inadvisable.
At Delaware Park, Jeremy Rose has been winning at a high percentage and is still being undervalued by bettors. On the main track, he's winning at 27 percent with the high sample size of 49 mounts. Only 10 of his 13 wins were expected based on the odds of his mounts. His HRN Impact score is +32 percent.
On the turf, Rose is effective as well. Winning at 14 percent compared to his expected win rate of 9 percent, his HRN Impact score on the grass is +54 percent. His mounts should be taken seriously on both surfaces.
At Horseshoe Indianapolis, jockey Jose Riquelme is winning at a low percentage and being over-bet on both the main track and the turf. He's been successful with 4 wins from 73 mounts on the dirt. He is currently 0-for-11 with his turf mounts. Riquelme's HRN Impact score on the dirt is -47 percent and -100 percent on the grass. This is a rider to fade, particularly at a short price.
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