Play Del Mar opening day with the Sire Moves Report

By Sara Elbadwi
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

The place where the Turf meets the surf, Del Mar kicks off 2022 meet on Friday. Horse Racing Nation’s Sire Moves Report highlights sire stats for horses making surface and/or distance changes. Contenders from eight of the 10 races carded show up in the report.

In the opener, No. 5 Club Cal (20-1 ML) moves back to the dirt after a turf attempt last time out. Though a long-shot in this field, Club Cal’s better placings have come on the dirt as opposed to the grass. Sire Clubhouse Ride has more success with his dirt progeny, winning at 18 percent of the time with dirt routers. His turf routing stats are less stellar at 12 percent.

With Commander Khai already scratching in Race 2, No. 9 Finally Here (20-1 ML) is the one that shows up on the report. A son of Uncle Mo whose progeny are more than capable on either surface, Finally Here isn’t highlighted as moving significantly up or down in this spot.
Race 3 features three horses switching from the turf to the dirt and all are anticipated to improve based on their sire side pedigree. Golden Balls (IRE) has yet to sire a turf sprint winner in 19 offspring that have attempted the conditions. No. 2 Single Me Out (8-1 ML) has tried the dirt before and performed better there than on the grass.
In Race 4, both No. 4 Big Buzz (8-1 ML) and No. 10 Of Good Report (15-1 ML) are expected to perform better in this dirt route event than they did in their previous starts. Big Buzz is a son of Mr. Big, who wins at only 9 percent with his turf routers. That win percentage increases to 18 percent going further distances on the dirt.

Of Good Report is a son of Twirling Candy, successful 11 percent of the time with his synthetic routers. For dirt routes, his offspring perform at 18 percent.

Three horses should move up in Race 7, a dirt sprint. Practical Joke, sire of No. 10 Keychain Girl (6-1 ML) is not known for his success with turf progeny. Offspring of his to try the grass win at 11 percent. On the dirt however, that win rate is 18 percent.
A price worth considering in the Race 8, the Oceanside Stakes, is No. 14 Sydney Street (GB) (8-1 ML). This horse gets on the turf after running on the synthetic last time out. Although he has had success on this surface, he has run well on the turf before. Sire Dark Angel wins at 13 percent with his turf progeny.

Race 9 doesn’t showcase any significant move-ups or downgrades based on the changing conditions for both No. 4 Houndstooth (8-1 ML) and No. 5 Cosmo (10-1 ML). In circumstances like such, other handicapping factors would be required before making a decision about how to wager on either horse in this event.
In the opening day finale, the HRN Impact score suggests that No. 11 Admiralty Place (GB) (3-1 ML) is likely to be over-bet. Sire Territories (IRE) is 14 percent with his turf routing offspring, but the HRN Impact score is -36 percent. This indicates that his progeny underperform based on their odds.

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