Peter Pan Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Despite its placement on the calendar, the Grade 3, $300,000 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park usually draws an interesting field for 3-year-old horses. The race falls one week after the Kentucky Derby and before the Preakness, meaning it needs to attract horses who are not starting in either of those races.

Saturday’s edition features the promising Todd Pletcher-trained Intrepid Heart, who broke his maiden by more than seven lengths at Oaklawn Park and won an optional claimer at Keeneland by a half length. If he succeeds in this spot, it is on to the Belmont Stakes in June. 

But the race is not a cakewalk, as it includes the talented Global Campaign, who hasn’t raced since grabbing a quarter in the Fountain of Youth (G2). 

The Peter Pan is carded as Race 4 of 11 with post time set for 3:08 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:

1. Intrepid Heart, 2-1 (Tapit – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 2: 2-0-0): Here is the most interesting horse in the race. There is potential for this colt to become a star, but right now, he is only average on speed figures with numbers of 103 and 105 on the TimeformUS scale. In his most recent win, he went five-wide at one point and mowed down the leader, High Crime, for the optional claiming win at Keeneland. He is still learning, and his rivals here don’t show standout figures, either. With some question marks, he is the main selection. The pick.

2. Federal Case, 8-1 (Gemologist – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 5: 2-1-1): This Gemologist colt has been somewhat of a disappointment since purchased by current connections last year for six figures out of a debut win at Keeneland. He finished a flat seventh at 9-2 in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), before running second to Gladiator King in the Hutcheson Stakes (G3) and third in Malpais in the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes at Charles Town. He might still develop more though and possesses useful speed. Use underneath.

3. Global Campaign, 7-5 (Curlin – Stanley Hough/Luis Saez – 3: 2-0-0): While Curlin is a nice route influence, it is a red flag that this colt is a half-brother to the sprinter, Sonic Mule, and Bolt d’Oro. The latter handled going up to nine furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last year but still appeared suspect doing it. Global Campaign himself hit a wall in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) — along with the injury that knocked him off the Derby trail. But this field does lack major speed, and Global Campaign possesses obvious natural talent and a tactical running style. Win contender.

4. Sir Winston, 10-1 (Awesome Again – Mark Casse/Joel Rosario – 8: 2-0-1): The connections did all they could to reach the Derby by entering the Withers Stakes (G3), Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G2), but he only managed a fourth, fifth and seventh in those races with his mild closing kick. There is not a whole lot of pace signed up here, either, which makes his task difficult. Toss.

5. Final Jeopardy, 3-1 (Street Sense – Jason Servis/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 2-0-1): This Street Sense colt has always been a bit overrated. He won a one-mile Gulfstream optional claimer in March, but did not face a tough field. Afterwards, he got thrown to the wolves in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and failed to take advantage of a generous speed duel, only closing mildly for sixth late. It is hard to count out trainer Jason Servis, though, and this is one who might progress running Saturday in the same colors as Maximum Security. Use underneath.

Conclusion: Initially, Global Campaign was a toss because of his distance questions. But with the short field and lack of pace signed up, he gets upgraded. With a non-suicidal pace projected, it is possible he could pull off the win up front.

But with the short field and lack of a true superstar, this is the right time for Intrepid Heart to break out for Pletcher. The low speed figures are not necessarily a reason to doubt him, as young horses progress rapidly. This colt sports a big-time pedigree with high-profile connections, making it likely that he progresses.

Vertically, this race is difficult. From a horizontal standpoint, those are the two As. If a B is needed, then toss in Final Jeopardy, as he may finally live up to the hype.

With two legitimately contenders for the win spot though who are both low-priced, it is difficult to build any kind of worthwhile exacta or trifecta around them.