Peter Pan fair odds: Vulnerable favorite provides a key to value

Eight horses entered the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct, but with at least a quarter of the field headed to other stakes races for 3-year-olds, Lonesome Boy to the Long Branch Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park and Tuscan Gold to the Preakness, The Wine Steward should offer value against likely favorite Deterministic.

Deterministic was the beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) who looked awfully good when winning the Gotham Stakes (G3) two back. The horse he beat that day, Just a Touch, went on to finish second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland before finishing last in the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone was second by a nose to Mystik Dan in the Derby.

Tuscan Gold would have taken money here, but even without him, I think enough money goes on Deterministic to make The Wine Steward the play. Interestingly enough, based on my Preakness fair odds, Tuscan Gold is probably a better play in the better race, anyway.

Deterministic at his best is better than anything we've seen from any of these. That Gotham performance would win this race at least half the time. But there are concerns with betting on him. First, it was a one-turn mile, and his next race at this track and distance was not good. Second, that Gotham performance was so good, it's possible the Wood was just a regression and that five weeks is not enough recovery time off that kind of "bounce" to expect a return to top form here, certainly not as the favorite.

The Wine Steward looked good in his 3-year-old debut just missing against Encino in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. He has enough speed early to stay in touch with the leaders, a potent weapon against this group as the expected scratch of Lonesome Boy leaves just Unique Insight and Antiquarian as the speed.

From a wagering perspective, I expect my price on The Wine Steward and look to bet him to win. Also, it's possible Deterministic does not fire at all, again, which means he could be off the board as the favorite. I will take a look at the exotic will-pays with the thought of keying The Wine Steward.