Peter Pan 2023: Odds and analysis for Belmont Stakes prep

The Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan will be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The Peter Pan, which will be run around one turn for 1 1/8 miles, is for 3-year-olds only and serves as the final local prep race for the June 10 Belmont Stakes.

The field of nine includes four horses who were on the Kentucky Derby trail, and two of them earned qualifying points.

In 2014 Tonalist, who was trained by Christophe Clement, was the last horse to win the Peter Pan and then the Belmont. Clement is joined in this year’s field by Todd Pletcher, Doug O’Neill and Shug McGaughey as trainers who have previous wins in the Peter Pan.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Peter Pan, which is scheduled as race 6 of 11. Each horse is shown with the Horse Racing Nation morning-line odds, his sire, trainer, jockey, record, purse earnings.

1. Arcangelo (6-1, Arrogate, Jena Antonucci, Javier Castellano - 3: 1-1-0, $57,400) Arcangelo broke his maiden in his third start at Gulfstream Park going a one-turn mile against a field of seven when he rallied from last and drew away to win by more than five lengths at odds of 2-1 for a low-profile trainer. In his second start, the son of Arrogate was fourth behind Kingsbarns, who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Toss.

2. Slip Mahoney (9-2, Arrogate, Brad Cox, Joel Rosario, 5: 1-2-0, $148,600) Slip Mahoney made all five of his starts at Aqueduct with a mile maiden victory in January by a head as the odds-on favorite and then two stops on the Derby trail. In the Gotham (G3) he got far behind in a field of 14 and had to race extremely wide but was able to get second. In the Wood Memorial (G2), he got bumped hard and checked after a mile, which thwarted his late rally and left him to finish sixth. Win contender.

3. Game Change (15-1, Candy Ride, Shug McGaughey, Jose Ortiz, 5: 1-0-0, $48,645) Game Change broke his maiden in his fourth start by more than three lengths at Gulfstream going two turns in February. A month later he stepped up to face winners in an allowance in Florida and ran last in a field of six after never contending. Toss.

4. Summer Cause (10-1, Summer Front, Christophe Clement, Manny Franco, 5: 1-2-2, $86,950) Summer Cause will make his sixth start at his fifth track. He broke his maiden in his fourth race at Gulfstream in February going nine furlongs in a field of six. He was third in his next start at Laurel Park in his first stakes race in the Federico Tesio behind the winner Perform, who might run in the Preakness. Live long shot.

5. Classic Catch (9-2, Classic Empire, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 5: 2-0-2, $134,410) Classic Catch has two wins and both were at the 1 1/8-mile distance around two turns, first at Aqueduct in his maiden breaker and then in a Gulfstream allowance. In the Wood Memorial he broke slowly at the back of a full field, made up ground and several places while racing wide in both turns. Improvement should be expected after finishing fifth in the Wood. Ortiz gets back on board and blinkers go on. Top choice.

6. Go Soldier Go (10-1, Tapiture, Todd Pletcher, Flavien Prat, 6: 2-1-2, $163,238) Go Soldier Go will make his first American start after six starts at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. He got his first victory in an allowance in his fourth start in February and came back a month later to win a minor stakes race in March. Three weeks later, he was a distant fifth in the UAE Derby (G2). With another diappointing performance in the Kentucky Derby by the UAE Derby winner, it is hard to endorse Go Soldier Go even with the move to the Pletcher barn. Toss.

7. Asmodeus (12-1, Cairo Prince, William Morey, Trevor McCarthy, 3: 1-1-0, $64,800) Asmodeus broke his maiden in his third try at Aqueduct in March going a mile on good and sealed track as the 4-5 favorite. On that day he pressed the pace with blinkers on for the first time, raced six wide and defeated a field of nine. This will be his start facing winners, and it happens in a Grade 3 as he stretches out an extra furlong. Toss.

8. Henry Q (6-1, Blame, Doug O’Neill, Frankie Dettori, 5: 2-0-1, $151,140) Henry Q will get back to racing after two starts at Sunland Park for Doug O’Neill, where he was an open-length winner of the Mine That Bird Derby and then faded to third in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) at odds of 8-5. In his last two starts, he was part of the early pace. Use underneath.

9. Bishops Bay (3-1, Uncle Mo, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 2: 2-0-0, $72,600) Bishops Bay is a later-developing 3-year-old who did not make it onto the Derby trail. Yet here is another Brad Cox runner who began his career impressively with two victories in two starts at Fair Grounds. The son of Uncle Mo broke his maiden in February when he defeated his stablemate First Mission, who will run in the Preakness after winning the Lexington (G3) by three-quarters of a length. Bishop’s Bay moved up to win an allowance by a neck after clipping heels during the race. He pressed the pace in both races as the odds-on favorite. The one to beat.

Summary: The Peter Pan presents the unique opportunity for 3-year-olds to race 1 1/8 miles going only one turn. The field of nine contains only two horses who are stakes winners.

The Brad Cox runner Bishops Bay should attract plenty of attention from the bettors with his undefeated record as he tries stakes company for the first time. Classic Catch and Slip Mahoney both are listed at 9-2 morning-line odds, which seem fair.

Classic Catch is well-established at the Peter Pan distance, gets Irad Ortiz back on board after a less than ideal trip in the Wood Memorial, and that makes him the top choice.