Personal Ensign fair odds: Is Thorpedo Anna a good bet?

Will Thorpedo Anna not be odds-on for the first time since she was 17-5 in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last year?

If the answer to that question is yes, then she is worth a play to win the Personal Ensign (G1) on Saturday at Saratoga.

Thorpedo Anna was an uncharacteristic last at 2-5 two starts back in the La Troienne (G1). It was her only off-the-board performance in 14 career starts and snapped a four-race win streak. Sometimes horses don't rebound from a race as bad as the La Troienne was, but Thorpedo Anna did with a three-length win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) eight weeks ago at Churchill Downs.

More importantly from a numbers standpoint, that race was among her better ones but not her best. Given the time between races and a move in the right direction last out, I expect her to get back to her lifetime best here, which definitely wins this race far more often than not. Even if she only matches her last-out effort she is still a likely winner. It all adds up to betting her at even money or better.

Dorth Vader is the one I fear the most as she gets back out to nine furlongs, the distance of her best win to date. She should get a similar trip as Thorpedo Anna sitting behind obvious inside speeds such as Randomized and Dazzling Move.

The other speed is Bernietakescharge, and although this is a big step up in class, she is going to be a huge price off winning a stakes at this track and distance last out. 

Raging Sea has gone the wrong way since upsetting Thorpedo Anna in the La Troienne. She figures to get a good trip with all the speed in here, but I fear an underlay on a horse who will be bet off her best. Her pattern after a couple of third-place finishes tells me her best is a reach this week.