Personal Ensign: Room for an upset, even with 2 big stars
Despite the presence of two major stars, this edition of the Grade 1, $600,000 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga Saturday offers room for an upset.
Even though Letruska carries the momentum and credentials after three straight wins, she faces other speed horses in this spot and might not secure the lead. As for the second choice Swiss Skydiver, she has not run back to her Preakness effort. While both runners remain dangerous, it makes sense to think about other options.
The Personal Ensign is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 4:47 EST.
1. Dunbar Road, 20-1 (Quality Road – Chad Brown/Flavien Prat – 13: 6-1-3 - $1,218,740): Trusting this 5-year-old mare in a Grade 1 race is difficult following two fifth-place finishes to start off her season. The fifth in the La Troienne Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs is forgivable because it came off a 174-day layoff, but there was no excuse for the flat fifth by 3 3/4 lengths in the local Shuvee Stakes (G3) last month after putting herself in good position on the turn. While a turnaround is not impossible for Dunbar Road, she needs to prove herself with a better finish first before placing wagering dollars on her. Toss.
2. As Time Goes By, 6-1 (American Pharoah – Bob Baffert/Mike Smith – 8: 4-2-1 - $398,600): The presence of this 4-year-old filly makes life difficult for the favorite Letruska. In As Time Goes By’s best race this year, she took the lead in the nine-furlong Santa Margarita Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita and crushed the field with a 9 1/4-length win. The third-place Harvest Moon had previously run fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last November. At a shorter route distance, As Time Goes By then won the Santa Maria Stakes (G2) by a nose, before losing the Clement Hirsch Stakes (G1) at Del Mar by 14 lengths with a disappointing fourth-place finish. Note the bad start in the Clement L. Hirsch, though. Most Baffert runners succeed when they break sharp and utilize their speed. With that point in mind, expect jockey Mike Smith to try and steal the lead from Letruska and bottom out the field. If As Time Goes By can secure the front by the time they straighten into the backside, she can upset the favorite. The pick.
3. Bonny South, 10-1 (Munnings – Brad Cox/Manuel Franco – 11: 4-4-0 - $704,150): Bonny South’s campaign began well enough with a narrow win in the Doubledogdare Stakes (G3) at Keeneland over Royal Flag and Graceful Princess, who both are entered here too. She then gave a nice closing bid for second in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) at Belmont in June, finishing only 2 3/4 lengths behind the division leader Letruska. In the Delaware Handicap (G2) last month though, Bonny South came up empty by finishing fifth by 8 1/2 lengths in a six-horse field. What happened? Regardless, Bonny South is only a good closer on her best day, not a great one. For what it is worth, she has been working in company with Essential Quality and keeps up with him fairly well, although Essential Quality is not a great workhorse. In case she returns to form, consider Bonny South for the third or fourth slots in trifectas and superfectas. Use underneath.
4. Swiss Skydiver, 7-2 (Daredevil – Kenneth McPeek/Jose Ortiz – 15: 7-3-2 - $2,190,480): The Preakness winner last October has not run back to that excellent effort since then. There are legitimate excuses, but at some point bettors need to wonder if Swiss Skydiver did not take the next step forward in her 4-year-old season. An early stumble hurt Swiss Skydiver’s chances in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last November. Off the bench, she then came back with a win in the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. In her second start this year though, she found trouble in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn after giving up the lead to Letruska and getting stuck behind her throughout the backside. After another layoff, Swiss Skydiver came back at Saratoga and could fare no better than fourth by 10 3/4 lengths in the Whitney Stakes (G1) against males earlier in the month. Of course, that loss is forgivable as well because it came against Grade 1 males. On the positive side, her tactical speed is useful and means she might secure a perfect position right behind the early speed. With another big name in this race too, the public is also less likely to make Swiss Skydiver’s odds too low. Win contender.
5. Royal Flag, 10-1 (Candy Ride – Chad Brown/Joel Rosario – 10: 5-3-2 - $375,520): To start off her season, Royal Flag made a nice closing move to only lose the Doubledogdare Stakes by a head to Bonny South in April. After another short layoff, Royal Flag came back in the local Shuvee Stakes (G3) and won by 3/4 of a length over a resilient Horologist, who crushed the field in the Summer Colony Stakes in her next outing. The pace figures to benefit Royal Flag again in this spot. The question is whether she owns enough ability to take advantage against this level of competition, as the top runners in this race are better than Horologist. She is better off used in the bottom slots as a closer that can pick off tired horses late. Use underneath.
6. Letruska, 6-5 (Super Saver – Fausto Gutierrez/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 20: 15-1-1 - $1,616,459): Here is the division leader. Letruska deserves all the attention in the world after prevailing over Monomoy Girl in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn in April, as well as winning the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) and Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2) in June. She takes her best effort to every track, which is impressive. After two months, Letruska now returns to Saratoga, where she won the Shuvee Stakes (G3) last August over Royal Flag. This is a better version of Letruska though. With that said, this is not an easy race with the presence of As Time Goes By and Miss Marissa, two runners who want the lead for their best shot. Miss Marissa is likely to back down, but As Time Goes By under Mike Smith is a candidate to be sent, especially given her trainer. Trainer Bob Baffert wins often by controlling the flow of the race with early speed horses, and he is likely to instruct his rider to go with Letruska. Then again, a division leader such as Letruska is supposed to overcome a stiff pace challenge. Letruska does not necessarily need the lead either, although she prefers it. Maybe Letruska will find a way to sit off the speed in a pressing or stalking position and prevail in the end. Win contender.
7. Miss Marissa, 20-1 (He’s Had Enough – James Ryerson/Daniel Centeno – 16: 6-3-1 - $644,690): As stated above, Miss Marissa wants the lead for her best shot. In her most recent start last month, she took the lead in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware Handicap (G2) and kept going for a 1 1/4-length victory. Clearly, the nine-furlong distance in the Personal Ensign is not an issue. The Delaware fourth-place finisher Dream Marie went on to finish second in the Love Sign Stakes at Colonial Downs a few days ago, while the last-place Saracosa upset the same field at 18-1. In her only other start this year, Miss Marissa was second to Dream Marie in the Obeah Stakes, also at Delaware, after using stalking tactics early on. With As Time Goes By and Letruska drawn inside Miss Marissa, she might find herself in a difficult pace scenario, or she may try to use stalking tactics again even if she prefers leading. Either way, she is probably a touch below the Grade 1 level. It is hard to imagine Miss Marissa putting away Letruska and As Time Goes By and then holding off the closers. If she uses her speed to burn the other speed, she will cause herself to lose. If she uses stalking tactics, she probably cannot outkick Swiss Skydiver for the top slot either. With some luck, though, she might run well enough for a small piece. Use underneath.
8. Harvey's Lil Goil, 8-1 (American Pharoah – William Mott/Luis Saez – 12: 5-1-2- $884,029): Even though Harvey’s Lil Goil began the year by winning the Beaugay Stakes (G3) at Belmont, this campaign has not gone right for her. She ran a flat fifth in the New York Stakes (G2) in her next start, and then a flat fourth in the Diana Stakes (G1) earlier this meet. Although she only lost by 2 3/4 lengths in the latter race, she had no reason to not kick on with the leaders and put up a fight. Now, Harvey’s Lil Goil switches back to dirt. She ran a credible race in the Alabama Stakes (G1) last summer by making a threatening move on the far turn before flattening out to third in the stretch. She lost by five lengths to Swiss Skydiver, who is not exactly having a great 4-year-old season herself either. Maybe Harvey’s Lil Goil can wake up with the surface switch. One concern is that this filly might need Lasix for her best shot. Notice that all of Harvey’s Lil Goil’s races last year came under Lasix, while she had none applied in her three starts in 2021. With that possible weakness in mind, she is more useful as an underneath selection. Use underneath.
9. Graceful Princess, 15-1 (Tapit – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 13: 3-1-2 - $264,474): Right off the bat, this 5-year-old mare shows an excellent pedigree. This is a daughter of Tapit out of the champion Havre de Grace, who won the 2011 Woodward Stakes (G1) against males on this course. Unfortunately, Graceful Princess’ best form makes her no threat against this type of competition. She did start off the year with a close third-place finish in the Doubledogdare, losing by only a head to Bonny South at Keeneland. But Graceful Princess then was a lifeless fifth by 19 1/2 lengths in the Obeah Stakes. She won the Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3) at Monmouth in her most recent start, but this is a completely different class of runners. Toss.
Conclusion
As Time Goes By offers enough value for a win and place bet. It is not often bettors get a quality Bob Baffert-trained filly with good early speed for a decent price.
For multi-race wagers, As Time Goes By, Letruska and Swiss Skydiver all deserve a spot.