Pennsylvania Derby guide: Odds, PPs, more for Parx feature

Photo: Coady Photography & Eclipse Sportswire - edited

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is set for Saturday at Parx, and it drew a field of 11 3-year-olds with possible Breeders’ Cup aspirations.

Dragoon Guard is the 9-5 morning-line favorite as he steps up off consecutive Grade 3 scores in the Indiana Derby and West Virginia Derby. Stronghold is the 5-2 second choice from the far outside draw, looking to turn the tables after finishing second in the Indiana Derby when last seen.

The Pennsylvania Derby goes as race 13 of 14 at 6:10 p.m. EDT. FanDuel TV will have live coverage of the race.

Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page today for downloadable PPs for the Pennsylvania Derby and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.

We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Pennsylvania Derby as well as recent top speed figures for each contender with Beyers courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Penn Derby best speed figures

Post HorseMLBeyerTimeformUSHRN
  1Doc Sullivan12-1  91112100
  2Seize the Grey  5-1100123101
  3Lonesome Boy20-1  79107  96
  4Timeout10-1  95115  99
  5Protective  8-1  95119106
  6Just Step On It15-1  90119  98
  7Dragoon Guard  9-5  92121100
  8Unmatched Wisdom  8-1  99120105
  9Who’s the King20-1  87113103
10Uncle Heavy12-1  87111  97
11Stronghold  5-2  89114  93

Looking at the pace

Seize the Grey is expected to go to the lead and set a fast pace in the Pennsylvania Derby with Lonesome Boy, Dragoon Guard, and Who’s the King all giving chase in the second flight.  

Pace Projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.

HRN picks for Penn Derby

This week’s Super Screener has circled the Turf Monster (G3) on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard with top value play Talented Man.

"His longer odds are attributed to the fact that he is being evaluated off his two recent dirt races," Shutty notes about Talented Man. "Being back on turf, we are going to see improvement. How much is difficult to calculate, but getting back to a pressing style here is ideal for this turf course, on which he is 2-for-2."

Buy the special Now through Breeders’ Cup Super Screener package for just $97, a nearly $400 value, and get analysis for the Pennsylvania Derby and more.

Ed DeRosa’s Pennsylvania Derby fair odds believe that Stronghold can turn the tables on Dragoon Guard on Saturday as the fresher horse.

DeRosa also has Cotillion Stakes fair odds, and he believes there’s a money-making opportunity even with Thorpedo Anna figuring to be odds-on. Mystic Lake is a live long shot and can at least get second.

What follows is a list of recent speed figures for the Cotillion contenders, illustrating why Thorpedo Anna will be such a short price.

Cotillion best speed figures

Post HorseMLBeyer TimeformUSHRN
1Power Squeeze  4-1  92113  94
2Scalable10-1  89109  99
3Tarifa  5-1  95109  96
4Everland20-1  84107  96
5Sidamara  6-1  83106  96
6Thorpedo Anna  4-5111129112
7Gun Song10-1  88112  99
8Mystic Lake12-1  95122101

For more Cotillion analysis, check out Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis’s Head to Head picks.

J. Keeler Johnsons latest Horses to Watch column believes Unmatched Wisdom is a logical Pennsylvania Derby contender if you draw a line through a dull effort in the Travers. Matt Shifmans Pennsylvania Derby picks echo those sentiments.

Parx track announcer Jessica Paquette joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to discuss the Pennsylvania Derby, Cotillion Stakes and Greenwood Cup. 

Here’s the field for the Pennsylvania Derby:

Post Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last Start / Next Start Morn. Line
1 Doc Sullivan
Solomini
0.00 Michael Miceli
Jose L. Ortiz
2nd, 2024 Albany RS
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
12-1
Last Race
Next Race
2nd, 2024 Albany RS
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
2 Seize The Grey
Arrogate
7.71 D. Wayne Lukas
Jaime Torres
4th, 2024 Jim Dandy G2
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
5-1
Last Race
Next Race
4th, 2024 Jim Dandy G2
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
3 Lonesome Boy
Nationhood
0.00 Hugo Padilla
Adam Bowman
5th, Salvatore M. DeBunda Sprint S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
20-1
Last Race
Next Race
5th, Salvatore M. DeBunda Sprint S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
4 Timeout
Curlin
6.19 William I. Mott
Joel Rosario
2nd, Sar Allow (8/17/24-R8)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
10-1
Last Race
Next Race
2nd, Sar Allow (8/17/24-R8)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
5 Protective
Medaglia d’Oro
5.12 Todd A. Pletcher
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
1st, Sar MSW (8/21/24-R1)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
8-1
Last Race
Next Race
1st, Sar MSW (8/21/24-R1)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
6 Just Step On It
Accelerate
5.79 Louis C. Linder Jr.
Jose Lezcano
2nd, Smarty Jones S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
15-1
Last Race
Next Race
2nd, Smarty Jones S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
7 Dragoon Guard
Arrogate
6.93 Brad H. Cox
Florent Geroux
1st, 2024 West Virginia Derby G3
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
9-5
Last Race
Next Race
1st, 2024 West Virginia Derby G3
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
8 Unmatched Wisdom
Cairo Prince
6.39 Chad C. Brown
Flavien Prat
7th, 2024 Travers Stakes G1
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
8-1
Last Race
Next Race
7th, 2024 Travers Stakes G1
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
9 Who’s The King
Not This Time
0.00 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Mike E. Smith
7th, Sar Str (8/17/24-R11)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
20-1
Last Race
Next Race
7th, Sar Str (8/17/24-R11)
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
10 Uncle Heavy
Social Inclusion
6.19 Robert E. Reid Jr.
Mychel J. Sanchez
3rd, Smarty Jones S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
12-1
Last Race
Next Race
3rd, Smarty Jones S.
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
11 Stronghold
Ghostzapper
7.51 Philip D’Amato
Antonio Fresu
2nd, 2024 Indiana Derby G3
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1
5-2
Last Race
Next Race
2nd, 2024 Indiana Derby G3
2024 Pennsylvania Derby G1

Read More

I'm dubious that we'll actually get the 20-1 price the morning line suggests on Quatrocento in the Grade...
The one-mile Dwyer Stakes for 3-year-olds scraped together a small field of six for its 49th renewal. Grade...
Trainer Kenny McPeek announced Friday that Kentucky Derby 150 winner Mystik Dan officially has been retired, but fans...
Wolfie’s Dynaghost , a 12-time winner for owner-breeder Woodslane Farm, is set to make his first start with trainer...
Multiple Grade 2 winner Skippylongstocking had his first work since August Friday for a planned return at Gulfstream...