Pennsylvania Derby fair odds: Fade Baeza in all wagers

There are two kinds of vulnerable favorites.

One faces a clear alternative and "the public" is wrong about which one is more likely. For example, Funny Cide and Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes.

The other one is a default choice in a competitive race where any one of several contenders can win. For example, Baeza vs. the rest in Saturday's Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby

Standard boilerplate applies, of course. Obviously Baeza can win, but I am not so sure he is even the most likely winner of the race let alone value at his expected price. He's 2-1 on the morning line, and as high as 3-1 on Horse Racing Nation's projected odds. As you can see from my fair odds above, though, I would need 9-2 on the $1.2 million McKinzie colt.

The attention is understandable. Since breaking his maiden impressively in February, Baeza finished second to eventual Preakness and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and third behind Sovereignty in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, as well as second behind the eventual Travers Stakes winner in the Jim Dandy (G2).

That type of class attracts serious money. But as a Ragozin The Sheets devotee, I am required to oppose this horse off a steady of stream of performances rated as a 7 against horses in here who all have run better numbers. And because there are several alternatives to Baeza, I'm inclined to try to beat him out of the number altogether.

Gosger has the single best number via Ragozin based on his 4.5 in the Haskell against Journalism. For the unfamiliar, lower numbers are better. Goal Oriented also ran faster than Baeza ever has when he earned a 5.5 for finishing third in the Haskell. I actually prefer Goal Oriented slightly, as I think he is more likely to move forward off that race whereas a best-case scenario for Gosger is a similar effort.

Magnitude and Big Truzz bot have run faster than Baeza ever has. The former is interesting, of course, off his disappointing effort in the Travers when he was the clear alternative to division leader Sovereignty. The Risen Star (G2) and Iowa Derby winner is likely to be overlaid here off that dud. Big Truzz likely will be too, considering his worst effort was his only around two turns. But this trip should suit him fine.

From a wagering standpoint, it is difficult for me to get excited about a singular win bet considering no strong opinion on the alternative to Baeza. Obviously I'll watch the board and pounce on a glaring overlay, but I expect the best opportunity to come from beating Baeza out of the exacta and trifecta.