Fair odds: Why revenge can beat chalk in Pennsylvania Derby

Not only is the Indiana Derby (G3) result still fresh in handicappers’ heads, but so is Dragoon Guard following that up with a win in the West Virginia Derby (G3)

The Indiana Derby is germane to the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday at Parx, because Dragoon Guard defeated Stronghold at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Stronghold was favored that day, but Dragoon Guard is sure to get the public’s vote of confidence this time considering his recent win.

Click here for Parx entries and results.

Interestingly enough, that win is part of the reason I’m giving a slight edge to Stronghold. Looking at the Ragozin Sheets, Dragoon Guard regressed slightly in the West Virginia Derby. That’s not a big deal. His spacing between races is fine, and there is no reason to think he won’t run a race representative of his talent. 

Stronghold, though, has had plenty of time off, and I expect him to improve off that Indiana Derby vs. run similarly to it, which is what I expect of Dragoon Guard. Stronghold’s best race was the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and I think he’s poised for a similar effort here.

The other I’m interested in here is Timeout, whose numbers fit better than alternatives like Seize the Grey, Protective and Unmatched Wisdom. He could provide some value given he is not coming into this with a lot of wins. 

Doc Sullivan would round out my last three picks from the perspective that I think he’ll be a lot longer than the 12-1 morning line indicates. I think he’ll get a good trip from the rail to utilize those triple digit Brisnet late-pace ratings on display in his only two-turn races.