Pennsylvania Derby analysis: 10 vie for first Grade 1 win

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx on Saturday drew a field of 10. The 1 1/8-mile signature race at Parx is the final Grade 1 stakes race of 2025 that is restricted to 3-year-olds and is run around two turns.

The entire field will be trying to get a Grade 1 victory for the first time, although three graded-stakes winners are entered. Four horses made an appearance on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and three of these sophomores made a start in a Triple Crown race. Summer winners of the Iowa Derby, Ohio Derby (G3) and Ellis Park Derby are part of the field.

Click here for Parx entries and results.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Pennsylvania Derby with the official track morning-line odds. The race is scheduled for 6 p.m. EDT and is listed as race 14 of 15 on a card that includes seven stakes.

1. So Sandy, 15-1. Omaha Beach – Cherie DeVaux / Kendrick Carmouche – 7: 2-1-0 - $124,821. So Sandy needed five tries to get his first victory, which happened at Horseshoe Indianapolis in May going two turns in a field of seven. He came right back to win an allowance at Churchill Downs going the Pennsylvania Derby distance. At Saratoga he was second by a head in the Curlin, which is restricted to 3-year-olds who had not won a graded-stakes race. Toss.

2. Altobelli, 50-1. Authentic – James Nicholson Jr. / Angel Castillo – 15: 4-0-0 - $96,787. Altobelli leads this field in the experience category with 15 career starts. His last five starts have been since May 21 and were at his home track of Delaware Park in allowance and starter allowances. His best finish was fourth which happened in a pair of sprint allowances. Two weeks ago he showed brief speed and faded badly. This will be his first start going two turns and first appearance in any type of stakes race. Toss.

3. Magnitude, 6-1. Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Ben Curtis – 9: 4-1-1 - $746,165. Magnitude had two open-length, front-end stakes victories. He won the Risen Star (G2) in February on the Kentucky Derby trail but then was sidelined until July when he again won by more than nine lengths, this time in the Iowa Derby. In the Travers (G1), he set the early pace but gave way to finish a distant third behind the division leader Sovereignty. The pacesetter.

4. David of Athens, 12-1. Nyquist – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 2-0-0 - $122,665. David of Athens is the first of two Pennsylvania Derby runners for Brendan Walsh. He was a debut winner at Keeneland in October with odds of 22-1 against a field of 12 that included Patch Adams, who finished third. He was off for an extended winter break to try an allowance in June at Churchill Downs, where he broke slowly and raced wide. At Ellis Park in July, he was an allowance winner going a mile in a field of five with a front-end trip. Toss.

5. Happily Delusional, 50-1. Flatter – Louis Linder Jr. / Paco Lopez – 11: 1-5-0 - $112,670. Happily Delusional is a local horse who broke his maiden in his fifth try at Parx going two turns in a field of seven, earning the only win in his career to go with five second-place finishes. He was fourth in the Tesio at Laurel Park in April, seventh in the Peter Pan (G3) and fourth in the recent Smarty Jones, which is the local prep race for the Pennsylvania Derby. Toss.

6. Goal Oriented, 5-2. Not This Time – Bob Baffert / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 2-0-1 - $331,960. Goal Oriented won his first two starts for Bob Baffert in a Santa Anita maiden as the favorite with a closing move and then in a two-turn allowance at Churchill on Kentucky Derby day on a sloppy and sealed track. In the Preakness he had trouble and finished a non-threatening fourth. The Haskell Stakes (G1) produced better results when he pressed the pace and finished third, less than a length behind the winner Journalism and a neck from Gosger. Baffert won the Pennsylvania Derby four times since 2014 with Bayern, West Coast, McKinzie and Taiba. Win contender.

7. Big Truzz, 10-1. Justify – Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano – 5: 2-1-1 - $333,555. Big Truzz was a first-time-out winner at Keeneland in April when he bested a field of 11 by four-lengths at 7-1. He was second in an allowance at Churchill on Derby day behind Patch Adams and then ran into that one again in the Woody Stephens (G1), finishing third. He was sixth as the favorite in the July Indiana Derby (G3). He got back to the winner’s circle with a career-best performance in the Ellis Park Derby when he pressed the pace and drew off to win by seven lengths. Toss.

8. Baeza, 2-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios –7: 1-3-2 - $948,500. Baeza, who was sired by 2018 Pennsylvania Derby winner McKinzie, comes to Parx with only one victory but just shy of $1 million in earnings. He was a maiden winner at Santa Anita in his third try and then finished behind the top two 3-year-olds in the country four times. Baeza had the lead in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but was passed by Journalism. In the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes he was third behind Sovereignty and Journalism. Last seen at Saratoga in July, Baeza was second in that field of five where Sovereignty prevailed. The favorite and the one to beat.

9. Gosger, 4-1. Nyquist – Brendan Walsh / Luis Saez – 5: 2-3-0 - $892,200. Gosger finished first or second in each of his five starts. Beginning at Gulfstream Park, he was a maiden winner in his second try going a mile. He won the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in April in the final stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby. He showed up next in the Preakness at 15-1 and opened up a five-length lead at the stretch call but got caught by Journalism. The Haskell produced similar results when Gosger took the lead and again was beaten a half-length by Journalism. Top pick.

10. Mo Plex, 12-1. Complexity – Jeremiah Englehart / Joseph Ramos – 9: 5-1-2 - $775,000. Mo Plex began his career with three wins. He had a 10-length score against New York-bred maidens as a 2-year-old, then won the Sanford (G3) and a state-bred stakes at Saratoga. He was third in the Champagne (G1) and won the Bay Shore at Aqueduct and the Ohio Derby (G3). Mo Plex set the pace in the Jim Dandy despite a stumble at the start but faded to fourth. Toss.

Summary: Magnitude, Goal Oriented, Baeza and Gosger will not have to worry about Sovereignty and Journalism in the Pennsylvania Derby as those two are preparing for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1. The four are talented 3-year-olds, and one of them is likely to get his first Grade 1 victory on Saturday.

Baeza is the morning-line favorite, and Goal Oriented should be close in the wagering with Bob Baffert as the trainer and Irad Ortiz Jr. as the jockey. Gosger is the third choice at 4-1, according to the morning line, and was twice just a half-length away from a Grade 1 victory in the Preakness and the Haskell. Both times he had the lead in the stretch and was passed nearing the finish line. Of the four main contenders in the Pennsylvania Derby, Gosger was the closest to a Grade 1 win. Gosger is the top pick.