Pennsylvania Derby: Breeder Clay will watch Baeza from afar

If Baeza becomes a stakes winner for the first time Saturday in the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, one of his most important connections will not be there at Parx to see it.

“Unfortunately, no,” breeder and co-owner Robert Clay said. “This trip has been planned for a couple of years.”

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Clay was speaking via Zoom this week from England. He and some of his old friends from his days as a student at William & Mary and as a U.S. Navy lieutenant during the Vietnam War are traveling through Europe.

“We’re headed to Italy, so I’m unfortunately going to be watching it on the phone,” Clay said. “It’s going to be midnight our time, but we’ll be ready.”

The communications technology is not new anymore. Neither is Clay’s anticipation of a big race. He has been there and done that pretty much all his life, which began 79 years ago this week in Kentucky.

Baeza’s life began three years ago in May. The colt by McKinzie out of star broodmare Puca may be the most popular maiden winner in training right now. Seconds in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2) have bookended third-place finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

Division leaders Sovereignty and Journalism, both bound for the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar, stood between Baeza and the winner’s circle the last four races. They will not be at Parx this weekend, so Baeza is the 2-1 morning-line favorite to have a breakthrough performance against the likes of Goal Oriented, Gosger and Magnitude. That does not mean Clay sees the Pennsylvania Derby as easy pickings.

“It’s a salty race. It always comes up that way,” he said on Horse Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. “Baeza is a May foal, and he’s always been somewhat behind in the development of this crop, but I think he’s catching up. He seems to improve every month, every race. He’s more mature. We suspect he’ll run a good race. He’s doing well, working well, traveled well. All systems go, but we realize there are nine other good colts in there.”

Clay’s Grandview Equine retained co-ownership of Baeza, who sold for $1.2 million as a yearling and is primarily owned now by Californians Lee and Susan Searing in the name of C R K Stable.

Baeza follows in the footsteps of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes victor Dornoch. The two full brothers are halves to Baeza, who continues to chase the legacy that made Puca one of the most successful dams of her generation.

“She’s been the gift that keeps on giving,” Clay said. “She was just one of those foundation mares that we didn’t know was foundation until we got lucky enough to own her. Everything she’s thrown has been stakes quality. She’s really a remarkable mare.”

Baeza and Puca represent a fork in the road for Grandview, which Clay started in 2018. That was five years after he sold Three Chimneys Farm, the storied breeding operation he started in 1972. It was not long before his new farm changed its priorities.

“We set out to buy colts and take big swings, trying to win big races,” Clay said. “Buy 10 and come away with one that becomes a stallion. That was sort of our strategy. But we peppered it in with a few mares that we could possibly use for stallions that came along.”

Clay and his Grandview investment partners bought Puca for $475,000 in the fall of 2018 and held onto her through Mage’s Derby triumph in 2023. That November, Clay put her up for auction. John Stewart’s Resolute Racing bought Puca for $2.9 million.

“In hindsight we probably shouldn’t have done that,” Clay said. “But we thought she was at the age at which she was probably going to be at the top of her value, and we were going to go buy some more yearlings. ... Baeza certainly was not here, and Dornoch was not, either. We had a filly. We thought this was a good business decision. In hindsight, maybe it wasn’t a good business decision, but you move on.”

Like watching an episode of “Deal or No Deal,” the pendulum on that decision could swing back the other way. Maybe Baeza wins the Pennsylvania Derby and parlays that into a big performance against Sovereignty and Journalism and a cast of older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Then holding onto him could reap more financial success for Clay.

But first thing’s first at Parx.

“If he doesn’t win this race, we’ll go back to the drawing board and talk about it,” Clay said. “I think it depends upon his performance here.”

Win or lose Saturday, the Searings, Clay and trainer John Shirreffs look like they will keep Baeza racing at age 4.

“You never know,” Clay said, “but we certainly would be leaning towards that.”