Pennsylvania Derby 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby marks the final major race of the year restricted to 3-year-olds, and it shouldn’t disappoint.

Going 1 1/8 miles at Parx Racing, Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie returns after bowing out of the Kentucky Derby trail due to injury; names from the Triple Crown series are in; and some impressive winners since then will challenge.

Here’s a look at the field of 10 with morning line odds:

1. First Mondays, 15-1 (Curlin — Jason Servis, Frankie Pennington — 3: 2-0-1 — $80,400): The Parx Racing-based trainer Servis is just getting going with this lightly raced colt, who will make his fourth start Saturday. He broke his maiden and then beat winners in succession, earning a high figure for the second out effort. But last time out in the Smarty Jones (G3), the local Pennsylvania Derby prep, he was a non-threatening third by 4 1/4 lengths. This seems like too much, too soon, but why not give the horse a chance if he’s healthy? Maybe Servis knows something we don’t about the $450,000 purchase.

2. Hofburg, 3-1 (Tapit — Bill Mott, Irad Ortiz Jr. — 6: 2-1-1 — $432,950): The Juddmonte Farms homebred missed the Travers Stakes (G1) due to a fever but is on schedule for his start here, which comes a race after the lightly raced colt won Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes. Class relief was appreciated there following a jump from a maiden win in March to the Grade 1 level for the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Hofburg ran respectfully in each and enters the Pennsylvania Derby off back-to-back bullet works. If not for McKinzie’s presence, this one would look like the favorite. Should be sharp, confident and possibly the betting favorite.

3. Instilled Regard, 15-1 (Arch — Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz — 8: 2-2-1 — $394,000): Earlier this year, Gronkowski relocated from overseas to Brown’s barn and ran a big second in the Belmont Stakes. West Coast arrival Instilled Regard is in a similar situation, transferred from Jerry Hollendorfer, and will exit a layoff here. Last seen running fourth as the longest shot on the board in the Kentucky Derby, this colt has competed with the crop’s best, though remains an inconsistent sort. In two starts prior to the Derby, he ran a disappointing fourth. Ending a layoff here, he’s tough to make a case for a win off the shelf.

4. King Zachary, 20-1 (Curlin — Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie — 8: 3-0-2 — $282,650): When fourth as the favorite in the Indiana Derby (G3), this one offered an excuse. He bled, then came back to run fourth in the Travers, 1 1/2 lengths behind Bravazo. That performance numbers-wise was still off his career-best top when he won the Matt Winn (G3) back in June and looked to be a force in the 3-year-old division. You have to wonder how much more improvement there is to be had during this form cycle. King Zachary will be coming from off the pace Saturday. Looks like the lesser of the Romans pair.

5. Core Beliefs, 10-1 (Quality Road — Peter Eurton, Joe Talamo — 7: 2-3-3 — $595,360): This one’s only finish outside the trifecta came in his last race, the Haskell Invitational (G1). That coincided with a step up in class. Since then, Gary Broad’s colt received a more extended amount of time than he’s used to between starts, which could be a positive. In hindsight, the horses he’s run with since third behind Justify and Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) don’t indicate Core Beliefs as a threat here. He’s another that doesn’t likely play a part in the early pace. There look like classier options to play here.

6. Axelrod, 5-1 (Warrior’s Reward — Michael McCarthy, Joe Bravo — 9: 4-1-1- — $540,925): Patience has paid off with this former $25,000 auction purchase by Slam Dunk Racing. Axelrod made six starts before going to graded stakes, with the Florida-bred second in the Affirmed (G3) ahead of back-to-back wins, including a last-out score in this race’s local prep, the Smarty Jones Stakes (G3). He has showed ability to close from mid-pack off moderate fractions, with the only unknown whether he can do it against classier competition. Deserves to be on your tickets, though not necessarily the win spot.

7. Mr Freeze, 12-1 (To Honor and Serve — Dale Romans, Robby Albarado — 4: 3-1-0 — $430,900): This late bloomer, who debuted in March, posted a monster effort last out, winning the West Virginia Derby (G3) in front-running style. The final margin was eight lengths and the time 1:47.95. A repeat of it makes him both the pace setter and a top contender here, though this is where we remind you that horses are not machines. Connections elected to skip the Travers to be fresh for this spot, however, in what appears to be a wise decision. Albarado is Romans' first call rider. The improving sort gets a chance to prove himself here.

8. McKinzie, 5-2 (Street Sense — Bob Baffert, Mike Smith — 4: 3-1-0 — $350,000): Baffert, who won the 2017 Pennsylvania Derby with West Coast, returns to saddle what was his top early Kentucky Derby prospect before Justify came along. McKinzie needed time to get over a hock injury and has built fitness in the mornings with a trio of seven-furlong breezes. The Hall of Famer tends to have them ready to fire first off the shelf, and certainly this nearly unbeaten colt will take money. Could be vulnerable given it’s his first race in five months, but will take money.

9. Trigger Warning, 20-1 (Candy Ride — Michael Rone, Irwin Rosendo — 13: 4-1-2 — $292,778): At 79-1 in the Travers, he did manage to finish ahead of Tenfold, Gronkowski, Good Magic and Wonder Gadot. It’s interesting to see the experiment continue. Trigger Warning is capable of factoring in the pace scenario — he was caught late by Axelrod in the Indiana Derby — but is more than likely out-classed in this spot. Looks like a toss.

10. Bravazo, 6-1 (Awesome Again — D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez — 14: 3-3-2 — $1,106,528): Lukas has run this one into shape, showing up at every major call in the 3-year-old division. You have to wonder when Bravazo will break through, or if he will during a busy campaign. Since Triple Crown season, the Calumet Farm homebred ran second in the Haskell and third in the Travers. His last two works since relocating to Churchill Downs were sharp. Maybe this is his moment? He faces few question marks in this spot. Upside.

Summary: If there’s a contender other than the Big 3 of McKinzie, Hofburg and Bravazo that fits best, it’s Mr Freeze. He has progressed with each start and should have every chance to set the pace here. But this race is far from a single in the multi-rage wagers, especially with McKinzie coming off the layoff. I like Axelrod as a contender with a nice price. Following the Travers, it’s another solid betting race for the 3-year-olds.