Penn Mile fair odds: A long shot is ideally drawn for an upset

The marquee event at Penn National, the Grade 3 Penn Mile on Friday, attracted a full field of 12 for its annual renewal. And even better, they're a competitive dozen with several overlays likely.

Mi Bago is unquestionably the horse to beat as the lone speed and a trio of stakes wins on turf already to his credit. But drawing post 11 of 12 does pose an additional challenge to lead this group from go to whoa, as the outside post positions have not performed well the past 10 years while the inside slots most definitely have.

With that in mind, Barbadian Runner is an intriguing long shot drawn into post 2. He gets four pounds from Mi Bago and others and should save ground into the first turn. Jockey Forest Boyce has had to go wide on him recently, but I'll gamble that she can work an inside trip on the far turn as well as get a nice kick off the bend.

It is hard to know what to do with Kentucky Outlaw in his turf debut. Numbers-wise he fits, and pedigree-wise there is no reason to think current form cannot translate to turf. His sire Outwork has similar numbers on all surfaces and dam Fend, by Street Sense, has a turf stakes winner in her family. Watching the board is a must with him.

Others to watch on the board are Smooth Breeze with Flavien Prat accepting the rail assignment and Clock Tower returning on short rest for trainer Wesley Ward. I am looking forward to betting Barbadian Runner to win and keying in the exotics with the aforementioned trio of Mi Bago, Smooth Breeze, Clock Tower and Kentucky Outlaw.