Penn Mile fair odds: Who to pair with the favorite?

Zulu Kingdom's win in the Grade 1 American Turf on Kentucky Derby day was so emphatic, it is difficult to envision how anything close to replicating that performance does not win the Penn Mile (G3) on Friday night at Penn National.

Of course, that is while they run the races, and although Zulu Kingdom looks much the best against seven other 3-year-olds, he is not invincible as my 3-5 fair odds attest.

Mi Bago is the most likely upsetter given his straightforward, front-running style. Zulu Kingdom ran him down at Churchill Downs eight weeks ago, but if there is any chance at an upset Mi Bago holds the best hand.

Still, I give that only a 6-1 chance, and as second choice in a field of eight, assuming no scratches, Mi Bago is unlikely to offer value either. I am more inclined to look beyond the second choice for exotic purposes.

Barbadian Runner is 10-1 on the morning line, but I think he can drift from there. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has States Rights to his inside, and that one will certainly take more money. So will Dream On on the outside for trainer Mark Casse, who also has Mi Bago. That is to say, those known names will attract more money than trainer Henry Walters legging up Forest Boyce on Barbadian Runner.

The Barbados gelding cost just $5,000 at auction and already has earned more than $300,000. His two turf efforts were not standouts on paper, but both had fast paces and less than ideal trips chasing those. He could be second- or third-best here and complete overlaid payouts with Zulu Kingdom.