Fair odds: Vulnerable favorite opens Fair Grounds in Peluso

The 2024-25 Fair Grounds meeting begins Friday, and opening weekend features a full slate of stakes for Louisiana-bred runners with a pair of added-money events for the Bayou born on opening day and another quartet of such races on Saturday.

The stakes sextet kicks off Friday with race 5, the Joseph R. Peluso Memorial, an important race for opening-day handicappers as it is the last leg of the early Pick 5 and first leg of the late Pick 5. It also concludes the early Pick 4 and is the second leg of the non-jackpot) $1 Pick 6.

There is a clear morning-line choice here in Voila Magic, and although the 9-5 price makes sense in light of his debut victory against open company at Keeneland, the reality is his Ragozin Figure of 14 3/4 is not the fastest of this group.

Sure, he has every right to improve second time out for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen with Jose Ortiz retaining the mount and Lasix being added. But I think we're looking at too short a price here.

A Million Moon interests me most. Those last two efforts at Delta Downs were around two turns, so not only is he cutting back slightly but he also is returning to one turn. It is also worth noting that although he never has been worse than second, both wins from five starts were on tracks rated as fast.

Tdz Hint of Power figures to have the controlling speed from the rail. He has never been this far or on a track rated as fast, but his workout into this augurs well for an expected gate-to-wire attempt.

Hay Jude ran away and hid on debut but might have to work harder with the obvious speed on the rail. I think that helps set things up for A Million Moon.

The others are outsiders. Assuming A Million Moon is no worse than fourth choice, I will play him to win and key with Tdz Hint of Power, Hay Jude and Voila Magic.