Pegasus fair odds: Value is likely on a key contender, but who?

A half-dozen Grade 1 winners are among the dozen preferred invitees for the Pegasus World Cup (G1) on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park, and that amount of star power should mean someone is going to be the right price to bet.

Of course, when it comes to full fields going 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Gulfstream, the draw is a factor in lining the race (see Horse Racing Nation's Track Trend Tools below). But we know enough about this dozen to get a good start and maybe book some bets along the way. In other words, my window is open.

As deep as this field is, there are a pair who stand tallest for me, and it's not particularly close. Saudi Crown was electric at Fair Grounds after a lackluster Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Now, we know Saudi Crown likes Fair Grounds, but that was the type of trip and effort that can win the Pegasus with no improvement. If he takes a step forward, watch out!

Locked is right there with Saudi Crown, and the draw involving Saudi Crown with his speed and the other speed in the race will determine Locked's chances as well. I don't see them in an underlaid, co-favored situation, so for me, the play in the race is likely to come down to whoever is the longer price.

Put another way, any of the other 10 invitees would be an upset in my mind. Locked and Saudi Crown are just better.

Three horses have run races at times comparable to my top two, Imagination, Stronghold and White Abarrio. Imagination is the most consistent but would need to improve here, and his best races are middle distance, not routes. Stronghold was awesome in the Malibu (G1), but that was by far his best effort ever, and now he'd be wheeling back on four weeks while stretching out. White Abarrio won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2023 and hinted at that flare a couple times since, but he also has flamed out. 

Of these three, I think Imagination has the best chance to offer value, followed by maybe Stronghold. Tough to see how White Abarrio isn't overbet given the rep.

Lastly a word on Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. He just isn't fast enough to compete with these. I hate being so bearish on a Derby winner with connections who are easy to root for, but he would have to run a career best to hit the board against this group, let alone win.