Pegasus fair odds: Draw holds the final piece of value puzzle

Not much has changed with the Grade 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup fair odds since the invite list came out this month, Rattle N Roll and J B Strikes Back are out. Newgrange and Power Squeeze are in. Locked and Saudi Crown are still my top two choices.

As noted in our initial pass of handicapping this field, I like Saudi Crown best pending post position. An outside post, between post 8 and 12 in a 12-horse field, for this 1 1/8-mile race next Saturday at Gulfstream Park would hurt his chances. He could still win, of course, but it'd be tougher for me to say he is the most likely winner, which is what I see him as now with Locked right there as my second choice.

After speaking with Gulfstream public handicapper Brian Nadeau, who makes the morning line for the Florida track, it sounds as if Locked will be the 2-1 or 5-2 morning line favorite with Saudi Crown in the range of 7-2 or 4-1 range. That gets me excited about a potential wager.

Of the new invitees, Newgrange and Power Squeeze, I prefer Newgrange, even though his form tailed off after a couple nice stakes wins last year. A win off a nearly six-month term on the bench is a tall order, but he's in the exotics mix at a likely generous price. Neither is outclassed here, and with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan being a certain underlay the value will not be limited to Saudi Crown.

The Pegasus World Cup draw happens at 2 p.m. EST on Sunday.