Pegasus World Cup fair odds: Picking a Cox key to value

Based on a mix of future wager markets based in Europe and Horse Racing Nation's morning line AI, it looks as though Brad Cox trainees Disco Time and Tappan Street will command most of the win wagering dollars in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup next Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

When 1/ST Racing released its initial list of invitees for North America's richest race outside the Breeders' Cup, Tappan Street was the future book favorite. But his undefeated stablemate appears poised to be the actual race favorite. After defections of Goal Oriented, Bishops Bay and Touchuponastar, I am inclined to agree.

Tappan Street is best known as the last horse to defeat Sovereignty, which he did at this track and distance in the Florida Derby (G1) last year. He returned victoriously, but the performance left room for him to return to his top form and I am not sure he can break through in just his second start in nine months.

I have no such concern with the undefeated Disco Time, who returned off an eight-month layoff to win the St. Louis Derby. I foolishly tried to beat him that day, and he embarrassed me with a 5 1/2-length win that he somehow trumped next out when winning the Dwyer Stakes by 9 3/4 lengths.

The Pegasus will by far be his toughest test to date as he faces older horses and races beyond 1 1/16 miles for the first time, but this is a superior animal. 

Given that both Tappan Street and recent invitee Madaket Road both offer much shorter prices in future wagers than my current odds, I am confident that this race will offer several wagering opportunities.